Erdogan's strategic play: Securing influence through Syria's gas

Since the conflict in Syria began, Turkey has supported opposition groups, and Turkey's President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has repeatedly called Russia-backed Bashar al-Assad a butcher, murderer, and terrorist. Turkey welcomed the overthrow of Assad's regime, offered help to the new authorities, and opened an embassy in Damascus two days later.

Unofficially, Erdogan is considered the "grey eminence" behind the successes of the HTS army, a militant group called Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, and the Syrian National Army sponsored by Turkey, in both Aleppo and the capture of Damascus.

Undoubtedly, for Ankara, the fall of the regime that ruled Syria for 24 years is a favourable development. Turkey has the opportunity not only to strengthen its influence in the region and secure its southern border but also to collaborate with the new authorities to achieve the ambitious plan of building a major gas hub.

Turkey already plays a significant role in the region. TurkStream transports approximately 14 billion cubic metres of gas through two export lines to Europe. The maximum capacity of this route is about 32 billion cubic metres. It is also considering expanding the TANAP pipeline to deliver gas through Bulgaria to Serbia and on to Hungary. Ankara is developing its storage capabilities, negotiating new supplies from Turkmenistan, which could flow through Turkey to Europe, and discussing LNG deliveries with the U.S.

Ankara has also provided Bulgaria access to its terminals and transmission network for 13 years. It welcomed Vladimir Putin's proposal for joint participation in building a gas hub in the Black Sea. However, Ankara's ambitions are much broader. Erdogan thinks globally.

To establish a global gas distribution centre, access to new resources and connections with other key players in the global market are needed. And the al-Assad regime has been an obstacle for years. In 2009, Qatar proposed funding a massive 1,770-kilometre pipeline from offshore gas fields in the Persian Gulf through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and onwards to Turkey. The project collapsed just two years later because Bashar al-Assad did not agree to it. The reason? One was the gas dealings with Moscow, to which the regime owed debts.

According to Dr. Tymon Pastucha from the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Syria's potential as a transit country can still be exploited.

This issue will be particularly important for Turkey, which wants to become a regional energy hub, so it can be assumed that Turkey will be interested in infrastructure development and engaging in stabilizing the region. A similar remark can be made about the Persian Gulf countries, such as Iraq or Qatar - says Tymon Pastucha to money.pl.

The pipeline investment, estimated at at least $11 billion in the previous decade, is, however, a complex and time-consuming endeavour. Potential profits would be delayed.

The development of gas infrastructure is not a foregone conclusion due to the expansion of LNG, which may become more attractive than long-term and capital-intensive investments in pipelines. Therefore, a return to the concept of investing in new pipelines in Syria cannot be considered certain. Again, we turn to political issues: how stable will the situation in Syria be to justify such investments - points out Pastucha.

However, Turkey could benefit from acquiring concessions for extraction companies from the new authorities, especially since it already has a pipeline connection with Syria through Aleppo, extending to the gas-rich fields of the Palmyra region.

According to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), potential daily gas production from the seven gas fields around Palmyra is estimated at over 7 million cubic metres. The latest major discovery in 2021 in the Zamlat al-Mahr 1 region in Palmyra confirmed Syria's gas potential. The total underground gas reserves in this country are estimated at about 300 billion cubic metres (for comparison, Russia's most resource-rich country has reserves of nearly 48,000 billion cubic metres, which is over 150 times more).

However, to benefit from these reserves, Turkey would need to invest in repairing facilities targeted during the ongoing war since 2011. Let's recall that in 2010, Syria produced about 9 billion cubic metres of gas annually - according to a report by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

However, the game is not solely about onshore deposits. A potential agreement with Damascus regarding the exploration and exploitation of offshore deposits off the coast of Syria would allow Erdogan to take another step in the competition for access to fields with Cyprus, Greece, and Israel.

Let's remember that the dispute over resources located south of Cyprus fuels the Turkish-Greek conflict over the island. The fight over gas and concession rights has been ongoing here for over a decade (the island itself has been divided since 1974). New discoveries only exacerbate the situation as the exploration licenses granted to companies by Cyprus overlap with those issued by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus for Turkish consortia, such as Turkish Petroleum.

In 2011, Syria planned to issue three licenses for gas exploration in its territorial waters. However, these plans were suspended due to the country's outbreak of civil war.

Erdogan has already stated that he is counting on stabilizing the situation in Syria. He has announced that if the new authorities request it, Turkey is ready to train the Syrian army. Ankara also hopes that Turkish companies will be given priority in rebuilding Syria. Turkey has taken in the largest number of refugees from this country, providing them with living conditions.

Przemysław Ciszak, journalist at money.pl