Crimea: A strategic quagmire as Ukrainian attacks intensify

Deliveries through Crimea are falling apart. The Black Sea Fleet had to flee Sevastopol. The resistance points out targets for attacks located on the peninsula. Occupied Crimea is slowly becoming a trap for the Russians.

The Ukrainians are gradually cutting Crimea off from supplies by attacking key communication routes. This poses a serious problem for the Russians, as their options are limited. Troops fighting in Zaporizhzhia can only be supplied via ferries, the Crimean Bridge crossing the Kerch Strait, the M14 highway along the shores of the Sea of Azov, and the expanding railway line.

The first method is temporarily unavailable. On May 30, the Ukrainians damaged the ferries "Avangard" and "ConroTrader" with ATACMS missiles. These vessels managed both road and rail transport. Commander Dmytro Pleteńczuk, press officer of the Ukrainian Navy, stated that the Russians would try to restore this connection as the ferries had become the main logistical tool for supplying troops fighting in southern Ukraine via the peninsula.

The fastest, but ultimately unsafe, way to supply the front was the Crimean Bridge built shortly after the peninsula's annexation. The bridge has already been attacked twice by the Ukrainians. In the fall of 2022, a truck filled with explosives exploded on it, damaging several spans. Another attack using maritime drones, which further damaged the spans, occurred in July of the previous year.

The Russians initially limited the use of the bridge for military transports and then practically ceased its use altogether until at least mid-May 2024. Satellite image analysis indicated that during this time only once—at the end of February—was a train carrying military tankers registered.

During this period, the Russians tried to strengthen the structure's protection. It is guarded by sunken ships and barges, with steel nets stretched between buoys, theoretically meant to catch approaching unmanned boats. After the ferries were damaged, the Russians had to resume deliveries via the bridge. According to the Ukrainians, however, only a symbolic amount of supplies is carried this way.

The Crimean Bridge is no longer important from a military point of view, so its destruction will not have as much impact as at the beginning of the war, assessed the spokesperson of the Ukrainian Navy. "There is no point in destroying the bridge just to feel better."

Ensuring the supply chain is crucial for the railway line from Yakymivka-Berdyansk-Mariupol-Rostov-on-Don. This route connects the occupied regions with Crimea and the mainland. Destroying this new railway infrastructure would be a serious problem for the Russian army.

Russian supply routes and ships are threatened. More than half a year ago, the Russians began withdrawing from ports in Crimea. They relocated to Novorossiysk to stay out of range of Ukrainian cruise missiles. Not long ago, a large patrol ship and five large landing ships were stationed in Sevastopol for repairs due to damages. However, frigates, missile corvettes, and submarines have disappeared from the Crimean ports, except for the wreck of "Rostov-on-Don."

Transport and landing ships were withdrawn as early as June, and the last combat ship, the patrol ship "Ladny," left Sevastopol on July 15. "Ladny" did not have much combat value anyway. This outdated frigate, launched in 1980, could, at best, serve as an anti-aircraft ship.

Attempts were made to relocate ships from Crimea to other Black Sea ports. However, these ports were too far from the theatre of operations or lacked suitable infrastructure. Hence, the decision to move to Novorossiysk has a significant downside—it is not equipped to accommodate such a number of ships. Nevertheless, the Russians have limited choices in the Black and Azov Seas. Only small units operate in the latter, focusing on operations around the Crimean Bridge.

The Ukrainians are well aware of the location of Russian troops in Crimea. Partisan units and regular Special Forces operate on the peninsula, conducting sabotage operations and locating and marking targets for artillery and aviation.

"Atesh," a partisan movement of Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars, reported that the Russians are moving their aircraft to previously inactive airfields. Partisans reported repair works at Zavorozhskoye airfield in Simferopol. Fighters and bombers used for attacks on Ukraine may be stationed there.

This information is valuable because, since April, the Ukrainians have been equipped with long-range ATACMS missiles that can destroy targets up to 186 miles away, including those in occupied Crimea.

The Ukrainian army also relies on civilian support. The National Resistance Centre (a website of the Armed Forces of Ukraine aimed at supporting civilian resistance) compiled a list of Russian equipment, including photos and silhouettes, enabling civilians to recognize and mark the locations of Russian systems.

Residents of occupied areas can use an app to mark relevant vehicles and their locations or a chatbot to send photos along with the positions of these vehicles. Ukrainian missiles have repeatedly destroyed these targets.

Crimea is slowly becoming a trap for the Russians, causing significant issues for the Southern Military Group.