Battle for the undecided: Swing states hold the key to 2024
Before the elections in the United States, media worldwide was filled with red and blue images. This refers not only to the US flag but also to the country's map with a colourful division. What are red and blue states?
Both leading American parties have their geographical strongholds - states that have been voting predominantly for one candidate for years. These states are referred to as safe states.
Safe states
The division of the American electoral map into red (Republican) and blue (Democratic) states has evolved over the years. However, there are places where political preferences have not changed since the Civil War in the 19th century. At that time, thirteen American states were divided into North and South. Residents of these areas differed in their views on various issues, including the economy and slavery.
Contemporary blue states are concentrated on the West Coast and in the northern part of the East Coast. Typically, Democratic states include New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Minnesota, and Hawaii. The centre of the country, considered more rural, is red, meaning residents of these states usually vote for Republican candidates. Political scientists also point to geographical criteria - Republicans tend to be popular in the Great Plains, typically mountainous states, and in the South, that is, in Idaho, Wyoming, both Dakotas, Montana, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Alaska, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri, Texas, and West Virginia.
The outcome depends on the undecided
The fiercest electoral battle is fought over swing states - states where voters have supported different candidates over the years, deciding the final outcome. The American electoral system is considered somewhat twisty. Candidates are selected in primaries, which are held at different times in different states. Americans vote indirectly — the votes cast by citizens in the popular vote are converted into electoral votes for each state (each state has its own number of electoral votes proportional to its size and population).
This results in 538 United States Electoral College members who will choose the president and vice president. In 48 states and the District of Columbia (the exceptions are Nebraska and Maine), the popular vote winner receives all that state's electoral votes. A margin of even one vote is enough. This principle is called "the winner takes it all." The twistiness of this system lies in the fact that one of the candidates can receive more direct votes but fewer electoral votes and consequently lose the election.
Playing for Pennsylvania
This year, candidates are particularly vying for the support of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In recent polls, the candidates enjoyed comparable support here. Pennsylvania seems particularly attractive, which has as many as 19 electoral votes. In the remaining 43 states, the fate of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris seems settled. At least, that's what history suggests, and history likes to play tricks. Just like demographics.
