Assessing Russia's military: Myth versus reality
The war in Ukraine, which has been ongoing for nearly three years, prompts analysts to evaluate the actual military potential of Russia. Some experts argue that, for a long time, we subscribed to the myth of a powerful and invincible Russian army. In this context, the analysis by Mark Gunzinger, a former Colonel of the US Air Force, who assessed the chances of the USA and its allies in a confrontation with Russia and China a few years ago, seems noteworthy. We revisit this opinion, which, at the time, was not overly optimistic.
Mark Gunzinger, a retired US Air Force Colonel, presented his analysis on the chances of the USA in a potential conflict with Russia and China in an article published in 2021 on "Defence News". His conclusions were concerning at the time, indicating the need for changes in the American defence strategy. Has the USA changed its approach since then, and are they moving towards modernizing the armed forces as suggested by Gunzinger?
Technology instead of numbers
Let's recall that Gunzinger criticized the approach of the US Department of Defense, which involved reducing the size of the army while hoping for increased effectiveness through new technologies. According to Gunzinger, such a strategy does not provide sufficient capabilities to defend the country and deter nuclear attacks.
The former military officer emphasized that to effectively counter China's aggression on Taiwan or Russia's on the Baltic states, the USA needs forces capable of quick offence. Only air forces, such as bombers and fifth-generation fighters, can respond in time.
Gunzinger highlighted that since the Cold War, 66% of the US Air Force's bombers have been scrapped, and fighter forces are significantly smaller than in 1991. According to the analysis by the retired military officer, if the USA does not prevent China from invading Taiwan, they could lose their position as the dominant military power in the western Pacific.
New challenges and old problems
Similarly, a successful invasion of the Baltic countries by Russia could weaken NATO, which, according to the retired American colonel, is a long-term goal of Vladimir Putin. Gunzinger proposed that the USA focus on building long-range bombers, fifth-generation fighters, and increasing the number of precise missiles.
Importantly, Gunzinger's opinion on the role of bombers in modern armed conflicts did not change even after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At the end of 2023, he referred to a report suggesting that the USA can acquire only about 10 modern B-21 machines annually starting in the 2030s: "Whatever progress has been made thus far, a relative handful of advanced B-21s just isn’t likely to complicate the offensive or defense operations of China or any other major U.S."
"It makes me uncomfortable (...). Our bomber and fighter forces will reach new lows this decade before they increase in size. At the same time, the threat of aggression against Taiwan or in the South China Sea is peaking. It makes no sense from a deterrence, risk-management or warfighting perspective," the retired military officer said in 2023, adding that appropriate pilot training is also necessary.
Unfortunately, according to Gunzinger, the American air force still struggles with the issues he mentioned in his 2021 article.
According to Gunzinger, revising planning assumptions and increasing combat capabilities is crucial for quickly suppressing potential invasions. Only such actions can protect the USA from degrading its military position.
Despite these problems, in expert speculations on a direct conflict between NATO and Russia, the fact that the Alliance surpasses Putin’s army in many dimensions always resonates.
