America's aging missiles: Challenge in modern defence race
Russia, North Korea, and China may pose a threat to the world with their land-launched, modern long-range ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, the United States relies on its old, 50-year-old LGM-30 Minuteman missiles. The USA once had modern ballistic missiles but discontinued them. Now they are striving to catch up.
The American nuclear arsenal resembles a technology museum. Just a few years ago, the computers responsible for managing the intercontinental ballistic missile launchers operated on outdated data carriers, like the 8-inch floppy disks developed in 1972.
By mid-2019, these were finally replaced with modern data carriers. However, the weapons in the underground silos remained the same – LGM-30G Minuteman III missiles. These rockets were introduced into service in the early 1970s, making them over 50 years old.
LGM-30G Minuteman III – A 50-year-old pillar of Western security
Minuteman III is a three-stage solid-fuel missile weighing over 32,000 kilograms and measuring slightly over 18 metres in length. It offers a range of approximately 13,000 kilometres and a flight speed reaching Mach 24 (contrary to Putin's claims, Russia is not the only country with such fast missiles). The circular error probable (CEP), indicating accuracy, is about 180 metres in this case.
Since the LGM-30G Minuteman III missile carries a nuclear warhead with a yield of up to 475 kilotons (the bomb dropped on Hiroshima had a yield of about 16 kilotons), high accuracy is less crucial. The missile is designed to destroy cities or industrial centres on the other hemisphere, not precise targets.
The basic technical specifications of the Minutemen are similar to modern rockets – most intercontinental and intermediate-range missiles have comparable dimensions, mass, or range. However, modern ICBMs have a significant advantage with their enhanced ability to penetrate anti-ballistic defences.
Although specific technical solutions are typically classified, higher penetration capabilities can be achieved using MIRV warheads with numerous sub-warheads, decoys released in the final phase of flight, various lures, or by masking the missile launch itself.
Electronic warfare also plays a role, employing active jamming or even attempting to deactivate radars over a large area with an electromagnetic pulse.
LGM-118A Peacekeeper and nuclear trains
The Pentagon recognized the weaknesses of the Minutemen decades ago. That's why in the 1970s, the USA developed a successor to this weapon – the LGM-118A Peacekeeper missile. This four-stage rocket weighed over 80,000 kilograms.
Compared to the Minuteman, the Peacekeeper offered greater accuracy, the ability to carry up to 11 sub-warheads, and what is known as a cold start. This involves the missile being ejected from the silo (usually with pressurized gas) to a height of tens of metres. Only then, in the air, is the engine ignited.
It was planned that the Peacekeeper would be deployed not only in stationary silos but also on mobile launchers, making them harder to locate and destroy.
With this in mind, a system of rail-based launchers called the Peacekeeper Rail Garrison was developed. Trains armed with 50 missiles would continuously move across the railway network or hide in tunnels, exiting only to launch the missiles.
Ultimately, this solution was not implemented, but the stationary variant of the Peacekeeper entered service in the 1980s. It remained in service until 2005, when the USA decided to withdraw and destroy all such missiles. Earlier, in the early 1990s, work on the light, intercontinental ballistic missile for mobile launchers, the MGM-134 Midgeteman, was abandoned.
ICBM with conventional warheads
One idea for using the decommissioned ICBM class missiles – without nuclear warheads – was for global, rapid attacks with conventional warheads. Missiles capable of striking any corner of the globe within half an hour were to be used during the so-called war on terror.
Russia did not agree to the use of ballistic missiles in such a role at that time, arguing that the launch of a missile – even without a nuclear warhead – could be seen as the start of a nuclear war.
It is notable that on November 20, 2024, Russia attacked the Ukrainian city of Dnieper with a missile, probably the RS-26 Rubezh. Although this missile is classified as an IRBM (intermediate-range), and thus has a shorter range than ICBMs, in practice, Russia did what it managed to discourage the USA from doing – by invoking the global security system.
The future of American strategic deterrence
Currently, the United States is working to rebuild its strategic deterrence capability, backed by three key arms programs.
These include the program for building Columbia-class strategic submarines (formerly SSBN-X), stealthy B-21 Raider bombers, and the next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile LGM-35A Sentinel.
Work on this – as the winner of the GBSD (Ground Based Strategic Deterrent) program – has been ongoing since 2020 by the Northrop Grumman corporation. Conceptually, the Sentinel will be similar to the Minuteman – a light and relatively simple missile equipped with a single W87 mod 1 nuclear warhead (though technically capable of carrying three).
As stated by Air Force Global Strike Command commander Gen. Anthony Cotton in 2022: “The Sentinel will be a highly resilient and effective deterrent that will ensure global stability for us and our allies for many decades.”
The program, currently estimated to cost $160 (CAD 223) billion, is delayed by at least two years. The first Sentinels were planned to enter service in 2029 or 2030, gradually replacing all Minuteman missiles. The LGM-35A Sentinel missiles are expected to remain a pillar of American nuclear deterrence until 2070.
