Western sanctions hit Roscosmos: $2.1 billion losses and technical woes

The Russian space agency Roscosmos reports that Western sanctions have caused significant financial losses in its operations. Although reports from Russia should always be taken with a grain of salt, this situation is another manifestation of the crisis affecting its space industry. Notably, one important facility was previously seized by a court bailiff.

Many of the reports provided by Russian media or authorities are part of propaganda. Such reports are part of the information warfare conducted by the Russian Federation.

According to information provided by Andrey Yelchaninov, deputy head of Roscosmos, the termination of contracts with Western companies and governments has cost the Russian enterprise RUB 180 billion, approximately $2.1 billion CAD (or over PLN 8 billion). The main reasons cited were the suspension of the jointly planned Mars mission (ExoMars) with the European Space Agency ESA and the halt of Soyuz rocket launches from the Kourou spaceport in French Guiana. Russia, which before the invasion of Ukraine aspired to be a space superpower, is now lagging behind the leaders.

Yelchaninov declared that restoring the company's position would be no problem, as exporting services and products is still possible, albeit to Asian, African, and Middle Eastern markets. However, this requires a precise and long-term strategy, as competition in these regions is very strong. The goal is to return to the export value before the sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its aggression against Ukraine.

This is not made easier by the reduction in the number of missions carried out. In 2023, Russia sent only 19 carrier rockets into space. For comparison, the USA conducted 110 such missions, and China 66. The year 2024 might be even worse for Russia, as they have so far launched only eight rockets.

However, Yelchaninov claims that despite the difficulties, the losses are decreasing. In addition to targeting new markets, Roscosmos aims to rescue the Russian space industry by building a new space station, ROS, which is expected to replace the International Space Station (ISS). Construction is anticipated to occur between 2027 and 2033. Naturally, Russian declarations and forecasts should always be treated with skepticism.

Financial troubles are not the only problems facing Roscosmos. The Russian space agency also struggles with technical and organizational issues. Evidence of technical difficulties includes failures during various Russian space missions. One notable accident in recent years was the unsuccessful return to the Moon.

The Luna 25 probe, which was supposed to be Russia's first lunar mission since 1976, crashed onto the surface of the Moon. According to a Roscosmos statement on August 20, 2023, an anomaly occurred during the maneuver to lower the orbit, resulting in a loss of communication and a crash.

Photos taken by NASA confirmed the existence of a crater approximately 66 feet in diameter at the location where Luna 25 was meant to land. Western experts indicated that the isolation of the Russian space industry from modern western technologies and its reliance on Chinese or hastily assembled domestic solutions contributed to the failure.

The mission was also intended as a prelude to the construction of a Russian-Chinese lunar base in the 2030s. Shortly after, India's Chandrayaan-3 mission, under the auspices of the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), successfully landed on the Moon, and the rover Pragyan began exploring its surface. On January 20, 2024, Japan's SLIM lander from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) also landed on the Moon. The Chinese additionally had a successful lunar mission.

Similar issues affect the new generation Angara rocket family program. The launch of the Angara A5 carrier rocket was delayed by a few days in April. Initially, a pressure system failure was detected in one of the tanks, and the next day the mission was cancelled due to a launch control system failure. Work on the rocket, which is supposed to be the successor to the Proton M, has been underway since 1995, with its first launch in 2014.

Since then, Angara has made only four flights. Of course, Americans and Chinese also experience problems (in the case of SpaceX, this is almost expected), but both superpowers possess significantly greater scientific, technical, and financial resources than Russia, so they can afford occasional mishaps.

It is also worth mentioning the organizational problems with Angara. The A5 version of the rocket launched from the Vostochny Cosmodrome. During its construction, over 17,000 cases of legal and norm violations were recorded. To address these, 140 criminal cases were initiated, and financial losses were estimated at tens of billions of rubles.

The situation in the Russian space industry was certainly not improved by the bailiff seizing infrastructure at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in 2023. The reason was the debts of the Russian Space Infrastructure Center to the Kazakh-Russian joint venture Baiterek, which estimated the environmental damage caused locally by Soyuz-5 rocket launches. The bailiff's actions were preceded by public criticism from Kazakh authorities towards Roscosmos management, which in turn was a response to the postponement of constructing a new launch site.

Given the above, it seems that the optimism of the deputy head of Roscosmos is not entirely justified. While countries of the global South may reluctantly cooperate with NASA, American commercial firms, or even ESA, Russians still have to contend with increasingly strong Chinese competition and other emerging powers. Roscosmos faces ever-stronger rivals on the horizon, and the war-torn and sanctioned Russian state loses more with each failure than the wealthier leaders of the space industry.