Washington's gamble: Doubts surround U.S. strategy on Russia-China alliance
The Trump administration aims to disrupt Russia's alliance with China, which is expected to result from ending the war in Ukraine. However, experts doubt the success of these actions and fear their consequences for Europe.
Members of the U.S. administration, including Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, have openly discussed strategies to challenge the Russia-China alliance. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Kellogg stated that the goal is to pressure Putin into actions he finds uncomfortable. He highlighted ongoing discussions about disrupting Russia’s alliance with North Korea, which had not existed previously, and noted that Russia’s partnership with China has emerged over the past four years.
Experts' skepticism
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, after meeting with the Russian delegation in Riyadh, stated that ending the war in Ukraine would create"real opportunities" for a "geopolitical partnership with Russia on issues of common interest, as well as economically." However, many experts, including former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul, express skepticism about the feasibility of drawing Russia to the U.S. side. McFaul emphasizes that China's relations with Russia are now closer than ever.
Evan Feigenbaum from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace believes that hopes of breaking the Moscow-Beijing alliance are "ahistorical fancies." "Putin and Xi Jinping share many assumptions about how the international order should function and possess deep ambivalence toward the United States. So expecting them to be 'tempted' into doing something they are uninterested in is a fantasy in foreign policy," Feigenbaum commented.
The new head of the Pentagon indicates a U.S. withdrawal from the role of main guarantor of security in Europe, which would allow a greater focus on rivalry with China. Elbridge Colby, nominated for Under Secretary of Defence for Policy, opposes significant aid to Ukraine, arguing that these resources are needed in Asia.
Despite these plans, some traditional Republican "hawks" in the Senate are considering opposing Colby's nomination, which would be an attempt by the former Republican mainstream to regain influence in foreign policy.
