Uncertainty looms over Nord Stream explosion: Russian or Ukrainian hand?
- For me, the matter is still unclear, especially regarding the operation itself in the Baltic Sea. It is more likely that the Russians are behind the damage to the Nord Stream pipeline - says Marcin Faliński, a former officer of the Intelligence Agency and author of spy books.
Let us recall that the sabotage at the bottom of the Baltic Sea took place on September 26, 2022. The explosion of explosive materials damaged three strands of the Nord Stream I and II pipelines. According to German investigators, the suspect for blowing up Nord Stream is Ukrainian diver Volodymyr Z. A European Arrest Warrant has been issued for him.
"They used HMX"
According to the latest reports from "The Wall Street Journal," the Ukrainian operation cost about $300,000. It involved a small rented yacht with a six-person crew, including trained civilian divers. The yacht departed from the German port of Rostock. Its equipment included only diving gear, satellite navigation, portable sonar, and open seafloor maps showing the pipeline's location.
The German investigation also reveals that four divers worked in pairs. Operating in dark, icy waters, they used HMX, a powerful explosive also known as Oktogen, connected to time-controlled detonators. A small amount of the lightweight explosive was supposed to rupture high-pressure pipes.
According to Marcin Faliński, it sounds incredible that the entire operation was successful with just a yacht in the middle of the sea.
"It's not an easy place for such actions"
- Anyone who has sailed on the open sea knows that the conditions there are variable and tough. It is not a lake where you can stop, jump into the water, and swim just like that—especially since the Baltic is a restless sea. It's not an easy place for such actions. I find it hard to imagine technically, and I have significant doubts. The biggest is the lack of an expedition ship - says Marcin Faliński, a former officer of the Intelligence Agency.
As he adds, it is difficult to imagine an independent action by Ukrainians without the knowledge of the Americans, whose services have been present in Ukraine, at least since the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014.
It is more probable that the Russians themselves are behind the pipeline damage. Just compare the situations we are dealing with in Poland, such as arson or the arrests of saboteurs. Almost always, there is some Ukrainian thread, either a passport, nationality, or company. Almost always, it pops up and intertwines, reminds Faliński.
According to "The Wall Street Journal," in May 2022, a handful of high-ranking Ukrainian army officers and businessmen gathered to celebrate their country's success in stopping the Russian invasion.
Under the influence of alcohol, in patriotic fervour, someone suggested the next radical step: the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines. President Volodymyr Zelensky initially approved the plan. However, when the CIA learned about it and asked the Ukrainian president to halt the operation, he ordered the actions to stop. Despite this, the operation continued and was allegedly directed by Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, now the Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom. He assured that he knows nothing about any such operation and that any suggestions to the contrary are "ordinary provocation."
According to Marcin Faliński, every scenario is possible, but the sequence of events points to Russian services.
- I am inclined to assume that the Russians could have placed the explosives earlier and prepared for such an eventuality. Then, the Russian services organized the operation with a Ukrainian diver and a Ukrainian passport. They exploited that Ukrainians hadn't been active in this area for years. They add a company and a Ukrainian guy working for Russian services. They rent a yacht, have a sonar, sail to the indicated place, and simulate diving. And simultaneously, someone detonates the explosives... This looks like a Russian job - assesses Marcin Faliński, a former intelligence officer.
