Ukrainian raids in Kursk stir uncertainty amidst relentless conflict

The Ukrainian strike on the Kursk region caused surprise and consternation almost worldwide. The goals set by the Supreme Command for the operational group that entered Russian territory are still not fully known.

The most likely scenario is that the Ukrainians hope to relieve the most threatened section of the front in Donbas, where the defence is barely holding together and, despite tough conditions, may eventually break. This is especially true since the Russians are slowly advancing near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

The Kremlin assures that there is no need to withdraw units from the Donbas or Kharkiv regions, as approximately 10,000 to 12,000 soldiers are stationed in the Kursk region. The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Army General Valery Gerasimov, omitted the information that most of them are conscripts undergoing training and rear unit soldiers. Both are not ideally suited for fighting experienced Ukrainian brigades.

Therefore, contrary to Gerasimov's assurances, the Russians transferred some units from Volchansk and units from the Voronezh region. Ukrainians also noticed a slight decrease in the frequency of Russian strikes.

The Russian army in this section employs the tactic of attacking a large number of troops on a very narrow section of the front, with very strong artillery support. This tactic disadvantages the Russians, who, with limited equipment resources, cannot attack other sections.

In the south, the Russians are still trying to bypass Ukrainian positions near the settlement in the town of Seledove. This happened with varying success, as the Russians initially managed to gain some ground north of the village of Zhelanna but then had to withdraw.

However, west of Pokrovsk, they occupied the village of Serhiyivka, which allowed them to cut the E50 road. The Ukrainians withdrew behind the Hryshynka River, from where they launched counterattacks.

The lack of quick successes on the front led the Russians to attack villages and towns just behind the front line. The short distance from the front means that the Russians use even short-range artillery and rocket artillery for the attacks. In Pokrovsk, a rocket hit a market, killing at least two people and injuring 17 civilians.

However, the frequency of land attacks has decreased. On August 7, Ukrainians counted ten assaults. Meanwhile, on August 5, there were over 30. At this moment, the fiercest battles are taking place in the section near Pokrovsk. Mandatory evacuation of children and the elderly is underway due to frequent Russian artillery attacks.

The Ukrainians also fight fiercely near Toretsk, a little over 40 miles northeast of Pokrovsk. The city, which had over 30,000 inhabitants before the war, is defended by the 41st Independent Mechanized Brigade. The brigade recently fought near Chasiv Yar and was supposed to be deployed to a quieter section of the front near Toretsk. Just after crossing the positions, the Russians attacked quite effectively.

They captured most of the town of Novhorodske and cut the railroad connecting Novhorodske, Zalizne, and Toretsk. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians managed to clear the village of Severny from the Russians, which allowed the defenders to straighten the line and regain about a mile of territory.

Since the armoured units have mostly been withdrawn from Zaporizhzhia, the Russians have very much limited their offensive activities, hiding in the line of fortifications they built before last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive. The fighting has practically stopped. On August 4, the Ukrainian command recorded only three clashes near Mala Tokmachka, two attacks in the Robotyne area, and one towards Novodanylivka. On August 8, there was just one clash near Robotyne. The day before, there was also only one engagement.

However, artillery, loitering munitions, and drones are widely used. The head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Ivan Fedorov, reported that on August 8 alone, the Russians "carried out 405 attacks on 12 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region." Of these, as many as 285 were carried out using various drones. The day before, 323 drones attacked, and in addition, 117 artillery shells fell on Hulyaipole, Robotyne, and Mala Tokmachka. On August 6, the Russians struck 495 times in 10 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, using, among other things, 278 drones.

So far, the Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region has not significantly affected the course of operations in Donbas and near Volchansk. Although the frequency of Russian attacks on the most important sections has somewhat decreased, Putin's soldiers are still trying to advance, and the artillery has not reduced its fire frequency.

It is equally possible that the Russians have decided on an operational pause after almost two weeks of continuous strikes to rotate units, pull up supplies, and reorganize forces. Currently, the offensive on Kursk has no visible effect on the Donbas front. It may become noticeable in a few days if the Ukrainians introduce more units into the breach near Sudzha and expand the bridgehead.