Ukrainian offensive in Kursk region poised for long-term impact: Experts
John R. Deni, a professor at the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College and a war analyst, is convinced that the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region will not end quickly. Despite significant equipment losses, the risks taken may yield expected benefits for the Ukrainians.
The American expert believes that the operation in the Kursk region will be considered long-term. Despite problems in regions like Donbas, Ukraine has decided to create a new front line, hoping to strengthen its position in the "non-existent peace talks" and encourage the West to provide more assistance. It may also be an attempt to draw Russian units, which have been operating in Donbas and the Zaporizhia region, to this new front, effectively halting the invaders' advance on Ukrainian territories.
American analyst on the Ukrainian offensive
"It is possible, though not yet certain, that the offensive in the Kursk region is not just an opportunistic gambit, but rather part of a broader military campaign that may extend into 2025, deliberately preparing the ground for operations elsewhere," writes John R. Deni in his column quoted by the Unian agency.
Western military estimates, cited by Unian, suggest that Ukraine has sent about 6,000 soldiers to the Kursk region, with an additional 4,000 soldiers stationed as support in the Sumy region. According to "The Wall Street Journal," to halt the Ukrainian offensive, Russians must move more than 20,000 of their soldiers to defence.
Losses of Ukrainians during the offensive in Russia
The Ukrainians' progress, however, comes with significant losses. American media, citing data reported by one of the Oryx analysts, believe that Ukrainians are losing twice as many armoured vehicles as the defending Russians.
The list of lost equipment primarily includes armoured personnel carriers, but also infantry fighting vehicles and tanks.
Photos appearing on social media confirm losses related, for example, to American Stryker armoured personnel carriers, which allow the transport of up to nine soldiers and attacking the enemy with a Browning M2 12.7mm machine gun with a range of about 1.6 kilometres and a Mk 19 40mm grenade launcher.
The Russians also destroyed at least one Polish PT-91 Twardy tank involved in the offensive, which likely fell victim to a Lancet-3 drone. The PT-91 Twardy is a deep modernization of the Soviet T-72, equipped with a better engine and ERAWA reactive armour. The list of equipment lost by Ukrainians also includes Soviet BMP family armoured personnel carriers, original T-72s, and German Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
Propaganda and military dimensions of the Ukrainian operation
According to Philip Wasielewski, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute think tank and a former CIA officer, the Ukrainian operation has both propaganda and military significance.
"Of course, this offensive is a major blow to Putin's image, a significant boost to Ukrainian morale, and resulted in the capture of hundreds, if not over a thousand, prisoners who will be useful. But what many commentators do not notice is that through this move, Ukraine has turned the conflict back into a manoeuvre war, where the Ukrainian military has the advantage," assessed Philip Wasielewski.
