Ukraine's tactical coup sparks Kremlin's overdue military reform

Since 6 August - the beginning of the "Kursk operation" - Ukrainian forces have occupied around 1,200 square kilometres of Russian territory and about 100 towns. The Ukrainian army advanced easily as the Russians did not consider the possibility of an invasion at all. The Kremlin was not even alerted by the spring raids conducted in this area by the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), the Siberia Battalion, and the "Freedom of Russia" Legion, which fought on the Ukrainian side.

Currently, one might wonder whether these raids were in fact a test to check Russian defences in the border regions. The information gathered at that time was surely thoroughly analysed by Ukrainian staff officers who drew appropriate conclusions from it. This cannot be said of the Russians at all.

Their only reaction was to start building field fortifications. In the Belgorod region, for example, rows of dragon's teeth tank traps were set up, and hedgehogs were placed on the roads. Yet it was to no avail, as the teeth were not embedded, just placed on the ground, so they could not fulfil their purpose.

Only a small section of the border was fortified, leaving a part essentially undefended, manned by border guard units. That is why the Ukrainians entered the Kursk region almost unimpeded and encountered their first resistance only near Sudzha.

The defence of the region was commanded by the Federal Security Service Border Guard Service. Its battalions on the border with Ukraine were equipped with armoured personnel carriers and self-propelled howitzers. This type of equipment was unlikely and did not stop the attack of Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles equipped with guided anti-tank missiles.

Regular units appeared only on 8 August, and moreover, these were Kadyrovites, who withdrew from their positions as quickly as they took them. Civil authorities were also completely out of control of the situation. It is no wonder that the roads were quickly blocked by fleeing civilians, hindering military logistics.

The Kremlin, apparently convinced that it was another raider raid, reacted only on the second day of the Ukrainian operation. The only tangible result was the issuance of "instructions to civil departments to provide necessary assistance to the residents of the region."

The military still managed, or rather did not manage, on its own. Random units were brought in, commanded by border guards trained for police rather than military tasks. Time passed, the Ukrainians occupied more towns, and the Kremlin did not implement any systemic solutions. These only appeared two weeks after the Ukrainian operation began.

On 20 August, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the formation of three new military groups - Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk. These newly formed units are to protect the regions in which they operate - primarily against airborne attack means. The ordinance also mentioned the protection of the population. Nothing was written about the defence of the territory of the Russian Federation. Despite that, it is the first step toward systematising and coordinating actions in the areas occupied by Ukraine.

Interestingly, plans to form military groups already existed in the Russian staff in May 2024, but only now were they implemented. So far, independent military groups have operated exclusively on Ukrainian territory. This facilitated the command and management of civilian-military administration activities in a given theatre of operations. By creating groups on the territory of the Russian Federation, the Kremlin indirectly admits that the situation is difficult, if not dramatic.

The actions of the new groups will be directed by the Coordinating Council for the Military Security of Border Territories, whose establishment was announced by Russian Deputy Defence Minister Andrey Belousov. It includes deputy ministers, regional leaders, and representatives of the General Staff, including its head, General Valery Gerasimov.

Belousov became the head of the Council. His deputy is Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, former president of the Republic of Ingushetia. Previously, Yevkurov dealt with the Kremlin's military cooperation with friendly regimes in Africa. He, for example, oversaw arms trade and sent Wagner trainers and mercenaries to Africa.

Andrey Belousov explained in the Kommersant daily that the Coordinating Council's work should be conducted around the clock and that applications received from the regions should be considered within 24 hours. "If it is not possible to solve the problem at a lower level, the information is passed to me personally, and I make the decision," said the minister.

This may mean that the decision chain will be greatly extended, and the Kremlin will direct actions centrally, as each day only deepens the chaos caused by the "Kursk operation".

Even the Russians themselves do not believe in the rapid stabilization of the situation in the Kursk region. On 21 August, the independent portal Meduza reported that, according to the Kremlin, fighting in the region "will last several months". This is already irrelevant to the order that Vladimir Putin, according to Ukrainian media, gave his generals. He ordered them to push the Ukrainian armed forces out by 1 October. It is difficult to indicate with what forces they would do this, as there has been no noted transfer of Russian reserves from Donbas, where bloody battles are taking place in the Pokrovsk region.

The fact that the Kremlin still does not have a ready idea is evidenced by further reports from Meduza, which drew knowledge from people associated with Putin's administration. "To stabilise the mood more quickly, the Kremlin, through propaganda, is preparing Russians to live in the new normal," the portal describes.

Propagandists, though initially shaken, are already returning to form. The daily newspaper Izvestia accuses the intelligence services of the USA, the UK, and Poland of aiding the enemy's incursion into the country's territory. The publication states that Russian intelligence accuses the intelligence services of the USA, the UK, Germany, and Poland of involvement in preparing and conducting the attack on the Kursk region.

The daily, citing Russian intelligence, writes that "military advisers from NATO countries helped manage the Ukrainian units that invaded Russian territory and used Western weapons and military equipment". The impotence of the Kremlin and Putin himself is not mentioned. For now.