Ukraine's strategic gamble in Kursk: A no‑win dilemma for Russia

- The operation in the Kursk region has presented Russia with a strategic dilemma: lose Donbas or open the way to Crimea. Whatever it does, it will cause changes on the front - Mykhailo Samus, a military analyst and head of the think tank The New Geopolitics Research Network, who served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 12 years.

Tatiana Kolesnychenko, Wirtualna Polska: You often repeat that with Russia’s vast resources, Ukraine can only gain an advantage if it acts unconventionally. Is what we’re seeing in the Kursk region exactly that?

Mykhailo Samus: Ukraine cannot afford symmetrical actions and rely on numbers as Russia does. It must show creativity.

Previously, Russian volunteer units fighting for Kyiv attacked border towns, but these operations were more like provocations. Now we are dealing with an invasion involving large Ukrainian forces. What is the strategic goal of this operation?

The troops that entered Russian territory certainly have a completely different task than during previous raids. But it is too early to assess what that task is. We still have too little information.

There was no official information until August 12, when Ukraine confirmed that its troops had entered Russian territory. But earlier, through unofficial channels, we learned which brigades are fighting in the Kursk region, in what number, and what kind of weapons they have.

We can debate it. Where did you get this information?

Here lies the crux of the problem because initially, all media used Russian sources without exception. Later, some data came in from organizations dealing with OSINT (open-source intelligence—ed.).

By default, I do not trust Russian sources, so I cannot state anything with certainty at this stage. When an operation on such a scale is carried out, the command's task is to disinform the enemy so that it is not understood who, how many, and why because every word spoken stands for a soldier's life.

So Kyiv has learned from last summer's offensive, which was announced for months like some event?

I criticized our information policy in 2023. Too many people knew where our soldiers were, and it ended with missiles or drones falling there shortly after.

This time, there was no information, but there was disinformation, and I like that very much. War is not a game; our task is not to inform the public but to ensure the army's safety and the operation’s effectiveness.

So, I don’t know if lessons have been learned, but as an analyst, I can only say that the operation in the Kursk region places the Russian command in a severe strategic dilemma.

So, will Russia be forced to withdraw troops from one of the front sections to defend its territory?

Since October 2023, the Russians have been conducting an offensive in Donbas. They have accumulated insane amounts of troops, weapons, equipment, and money there. Their main goal is to occupy the entire area before the US elections. But despite all efforts, Russia has achieved no results and is not now ready to interrupt this offensive because withdrawing troops means precisely that.

But Russia has achieved something - it took Avdiivka, moved towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk. And Chasiv Yar, which is very strategic, is under the threat of falling. So, the question remains whether the operation in the Kursk region is not a desperate attempt to save Donbas from collapse.

Do you believe Chasiv Yar could be occupied?

It’s not a matter of belief but facts, and the facts are that the Russians are methodically wiping Chasiv Yar off the face of the earth block by block. As they did earlier in Mariupol, Bakhmut, Avdiivka. In practice, this means that Ukrainian soldiers have nowhere to dig in and are retreating.

In the past month, Russia has moved metres into Chasiv Yar. They took one street. And throughout Donbas, the Russians have advanced some kilometres over ten months of offensive, which means nothing from an operational and strategic point of view. But every street battle costs them several thousand soldiers and dozens of equipment. This is not how you conduct a war. Russia has fallen into a trap in Donbas.

So please do not listen to experts who said that Ukraine would move to strategic defence this year because it is cornered into a blind alley.

And you repeated that 2024 would be decisive for Ukraine because the chances of a breakthrough might disappear after the US elections. But you would agree that there were many reasons to draw black scenarios: lack of weapons and ammunition, late mobilisation. And Kyiv communicated that there would be no counter-offensive this year.

I think this stems not from reasons but from a genuine disbelief that Ukraine can achieve more. Recall the hate that poured on Oleksandr Syrskyi when he replaced Valerii Zaluzhnyi as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. It was a big lament. Everything boiled down to emotions and politics, while the military structure operated entirely differently.

Let’s return to the Kursk region. What does the command intend to do next with the territory taken in Russia? Will there be occupation or a referendum? They won’t move deeper into Russia if only due to the lack of logistical lines.

Please do not think that the commanders of these soldiers are fools. Securing logistical lines is the first thing planned for such operations unless they are Russian troops.

Which made this mistake in 2022, attacking the Kyiv region without a logistical base.

It wasn’t a mistake but a complete disgrace and failure. The problem for Russians lies in having inferior intelligence and weak analytics. Therefore, they continue to make bad decisions and cannot plan effective operations. In 2022, they didn’t intend to fight but to enter, kill or drive out Zelensky and place Viktor Yanukovych in his place. They didn’t need logistics. It’s no coincidence they call this war a “special military operation” because initially, it was planned and carried out by special services, with the military in an operational role.

The story with the Kursk region is entirely different. The units fighting there are focused on performing combat tasks, so logistics are controlled first.

What do we know about the numbers of the current raids across the border from Russia? According to Russian bloggers, it is a group of up to 20,000 soldiers. Western press mentions half that number.

I will not guess because, as I said - we don’t know the goals of this operation and, accordingly, the number of soldiers needed for it. I guess it’s an attempt to destabilize Russia. Putin will now pretend nothing happened, and the operation will last a week or two. The generals will demand something be done about this shame, they will scheme, call up reservists, and Chechen units. Because if troops move from Donbas, the front will collapse, and Ukraine will reclaim Donetsk.

The situation in Donbas is very tense. But this tension can go either way. If Russian positions weaken, Ukraine will not sit idle.

So from where will they pull the troops? From the south?

I do not rule that out, but if it happens, the operation in Kursk will become very, very secondary.

Because then the route to Crimea will be exposed? In recent days, Ukrainian special forces attacked the Kinburn Spit twice, a small peninsula between the Dnieper estuary and the open waters of the Black Sea.

For Putin, losing Crimea is unacceptable. So Russia faces a dilemma: withdraw troops from Donbas and lose it or expose Crimea?

The situation is developing very dynamically. And I think the goals of the ongoing operation are very ambitious. The Kursk region may be only part of the plan. For now, the Russians are still making bad decisions. They cling to Donbas like in 2022. Then, at the end of March, they withdrew from the Kyiv region, and instead of moving troops along the border with Belarus and striking in western Ukraine, they somehow transferred forces to the east. From a military point of view, that was utterly unwise.

Therefore, I believe Russia lost the war back in February 2022. Everything that happened later was just a good face to a bad game. However, maintaining it will be increasingly difficult because the operation in the Kursk region will create a no-win situation for Putin.

You speak as if the balance of power has suddenly shifted and Ukraine has more people and equipment. The truth is it is overstretching already exhausted troops to another front. So the risk of the Kursk region operation failing remains high.

The risk is always there. Ukraine has both good and bad experiences. We liberated the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, but the 2023 counter-offensive did not meet expectations. Now, everything depends on whether mistakes were made at the planning stage when assessing the situation.

But Russia still controls the sky, has 500-kilogram bombs and 48,000 soldiers from the “North” Military Group fighting along the border line.

Regarding air control, a few days ago, Ukraine attacked the Lipetsk air base, where strategic bombers were stationed and where there was a large ammunition depot. Earlier, there were explosions at the air base in Mrozovsk. Now, the aircraft are dispersed and cannot operate effectively. It shows a comprehensive approach to operational planning.

I don’t know where those 48,000 soldiers are. Analysts who spread this information might be using Russian sources. The Russians are masters of spreading disinformation.

Are you saying the king is naked?

No, the king is dressed, and that’s good. Currently, about half a million Russian soldiers are stationed in Donbas. Which European country has such an army? And these half a million people are only a striking force. Russia has dug into Donbas up to its ears, and the Ukrainian command skillfully exploited this.

Just don’t tell me that all Ukrainian failures on the front were planned.

If you overlay a map of our fortifications on all the "successes" that Russia achieved on the Pokrovsk direction, you will see a very interesting picture.

What kind?

Such that the Russians were lured into a trap. And it is now closing. A massive troop grouping is stuck in Donbas, and very interesting things are beginning to happen around it. Now, the operation is in the Kursk region, then it will be in Bryansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. And the troops will still be in Donbas.

And Putin can continue to ignore the situation, just as he did in the case of previous raids in the Belgorod region?

I am most inclined to believe that the Kremlin will behave that way. It will pretend nothing is happening. The propaganda will explain that these are insignificant territories. Everyone will say that nothing happened, and Putin will additionally give residents of the region 45 kilograms.

You are exaggerating with these “insignificant territories”. In close proximity to the Ukrainian border is the Kursk nuclear power plant, the pressure station of the only pipeline through which Russian gas flows to Europe, a 330 kV substation that connects the Kursk power plant with the Ukrainian power grid and the power plant in Belgorod. These are not significant facilities?

Russia is a very large country, so it will manage. Please listen carefully to Putin. He already says that nothing happened. And he corners himself because similar operations will begin to repeat in other regions, and Russia's strategic dilemma will only deepen. It will be hard for it to decide whether to move reserves and if so, the question is where since the front line stretches over about 1,000 kilometres.

The mayor of the Russian city of Kurchatov, where the Kursk nuclear power plant is located, speaks of a “tense” situation due to the fighting. Does Ukraine want to take over the power plant, or is this an exaggeration by Russian propaganda to force the West to react?

I don’t know if they will take it over or not, and frankly, I don’t care. Russia occupied two Ukrainian power plants and suffered no consequences. And now the world threatens us.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has called for “restraint”.

The IAEA and the entire West led to Pandora’s box being opened. If real sanctions had been imposed on Russia for attempting to occupy the Chernobyl power plant, there wouldn’t have been an occupation of the Zaporizhia plant. But Russia was not punished because the EU and the United States still buy nuclear fuel from it and pay billions for it. So now let them negotiate with Putin to exchange the power plant in Kurchatov for that in Zaporizhia. It’s cynical but true, just like the fact that the United States supports Ukraine but protects Russia. Moscow can bomb our territory, but we cannot use Western weapons to hit military targets in Russia.

The USA is much more concerned with avoiding escalation than with Ukraine's victory.

They must, therefore, reckon with the effects of this short-sighted policy. North Korea is now increasing its nuclear arsenal, and tomorrow it may turn out that Iran has a nuclear bomb. As long as the system exists, it will develop.

You criticize the United States, but they must have known about the operation in the Kursk region and helped plan it. Because it looks like it has been prepared for a long time and is well thought out.

I don’t think the United States knew anything.

Why are you so sure?

For a prosaic reason. If the Americans knew, leaks from “anonymous” sources would have appeared in the media long ago, as they did before the 2023 counter-offensive. Most leaks came from the West, and the Ukrainian military disliked this. Therefore, this time, complete silence was maintained. In the coming weeks, we will see which way the situation goes. But I am already prepared for more surprises.