Ukraine's reliance on Western aid: A fragile defence strategy
- Ukraine had never prepared for war, naively believing in international security institutions. Hence, it is unfortunately unable to protect international order and peace in Europe with its own resources. It is Western weapons and funds that provide the basis of our continued defence, says Yegor Firsov, a former Ukrainian parliamentarian who is now a medic helping wounded soldiers on the front line.
Firsov argues that the best guarantee of peace in Ukraine would not be political assurances but rather strengthening Ukraine to such an extent that the enemy simply does not dare to attack again.
In his view, even if Donald Trump, upon assuming power in the US, significantly limits or stops aid to Ukraine, the war will continue. - This would simply mean that Ukraine would pay the price in the form of more casualties and loss of more territories, while Russia grows stronger and approaches NATO borders, Firsov argues.
Meanwhile, as he adds, Western aid, especially military support, is crucial not only on the front line but also at the future negotiating table. He explains, "it is the military reality that will determine Russia’s compliance and willingness to compromise."
- Thus, whatever our expectations from the Trump administration may be, both the U.S. and especially Europe should be interested in strengthening the resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Otherwise, negotiations will turn from a constructive conversation into a platform for Russian President Vladimir Putin to issue ultimatums, Firsov says.
- Ukraine had never prepared for war, naively believing in international security institutions. Hence, it is unfortunately unable to protect international order and peace in Europe with its own resources. It is Western weapons and funds that provide the basis of our continued defence – he adds.
The drama of Ukrainians on the front. "We are losing cities"
Firsov is convinced that Putin secretly hopes that Western support for Ukraine will soon begin to wane, bringing a Russian victory within reach. Especially since with the current support, Ukraine is on the defensive.
- I have been fighting in Donbas for three years, now in the Pokrovsk direction. And, indeed, the situation is such that we’re losing cities: Avdiivka, Vugledar and Selydove were all lost this year, while Kostyantynivka, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Myrnograd, Toretsk and Kurakhovo are all under severe threat. And this means Russia currently has no incentive to stop hostilities - he concludes.
He emphasizes that the most urgent need is for as many drones as possible. According to him, within the last month alone, drones recorded about 20,000 hits on enemy targets.
- A freeze or a truce isn’t peace. And we shouldn’t be under any illusion that Putin will stop without achieving his goals, should he have the resources and opportunities to do so - he summarizes.
