Ukraine's missile strike on Russian depot sparks significant tremors

Specialists from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) commented on the destruction by Ukrainians of an ammunition depot in Tver Oblast in Western Russia, which caused a minor earthquake. In their view, the effects of this event will influence further Russian actions in Ukraine and significantly hinder their operations.

According to George William Herbert from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California, the size of the largest explosion recorded in the town of Toropets corresponded to the force of 220-260 tons of explosive charges.

The explosions in the discussed Russian ammunition depots were so large that they could be seen from space, and tremors of 2.8 on the Richter scale were recorded in the area.

Ukrainian intelligence representatives claim that the warehouses in the town of Toropets contained Grad, S-300, and S-400 rockets and even ballistic missiles - Iskander and North Korean KN-23. ISW analysts believe that destroying such large and valuable resources will result in problems for the Russians. They recall the situation from 2022 and the Ukrainian attack (using HIMARS systems) on Russian ammunition depots located in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, which forced the invaders to scatter their supplies, significantly reducing the efficiency of their logistics.

According to ISW analysts, the final decision of the West regarding the use of long-range weapons by Ukrainians to attack targets on Russian territory will be crucial. Particularly important is the stance of hesitating powers—the United States and the United Kingdom—which are supplying Ukraine with ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, respectively. These can effectively target objectives even several hundred kilometres away, bypassing anti-aircraft systems.

The Russian military's establishment of these depots likely failed to fully address security vulnerabilities in many cases. According to ISW, reducing limitations on the use of Western systems and enhancing Ukraine's own long-range strike capabilities could enable the Ukrainian Armed Forces to exploit these enemy weaknesses more effectively.

The attacked ammunition depot in Tver Oblast is located about 500 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. This is a distance that several models of Ukrainian drones can cover. Some sources suggest that, in this case, the accurate strike was carried out by a mysterious Palyanytsya, a project described as a combination of a missile and a drone. Ukrainians have never disclosed its specifications. Additionally, Bóbr and Rubaka drones, as well as UJ-22 Airborne, have long been used by them. ISW specialists believe that only when combined with Western weapons, will this arsenal be able to inflict losses on Russia that will prevent further offensives.

"Ukrainian military strikes on targets in Russia may influence offensive operations across the entire theatre of operations. This will happen if the Defence Forces have the material base and permission to conduct a large-scale strike campaign on logistical objects in Russia," adds ISW.

For example, the Storm Shadow missiles mentioned are cruise missiles adapted for launching from aircraft. They provide incomparably greater damage potential than drones. Each such missile weighs about 1.3 tonnes, of which about 450 kilograms account for the BROACH (Bomb Royal Ordnance Augmented CHarge) warhead. The warhead can operate in various modes—a classic explosion on impact, an explosion in the air, or a delayed explosion. Additionally, they are made with stealth technology. Their maximum range is about 500 kilometres.