Ukraine's government shakeup raises questions over key dismissals

This fall will be extremely important for Ukraine, said President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his evening speech, explaining the largest government reorganization since the beginning of the Russian invasion.

The news about the resignation of more than half of the ministers in Kyiv was not a surprise. Rumours about the upcoming changes in the government had been circulating for at least a few months. However, it was assumed that Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal would lose his position.

However, on Wednesday, September 4, the Verkhovna Rada voted to dismiss, among others, the Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olga Stefanishyna, and Justice Minister Denys Maliuska.

On Thursday, September 5, the Ukrainian parliament accepted the resignation of Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. His dismissal caused the most confusion, even among the opposition. Some consider him the best foreign minister in Ukraine's history, while others accuse him of being passive towards the president's office. However, there is consensus that there were no specific reasons for Kuleba's dismissal.

He was a brilliant figure in Ukrainian diplomacy. He made a significant contribution to the fight against the Russian invasion. There were no major complaints about the work of his ministry, said Volodymyr Fesenko, a political scientist, head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, and a member of the Public Council at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

No one understands the logic of this decision. The news of Kuleba's dismissal caused consternation and nervousness in diplomatic circles, emphasized Sevgil Musayeva, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian Pravda portal.

My whole life I've been haunted by one sentence: 'You're too young for this position,' Kuleba said in one of the interviews.

He decided he wanted to be a diplomat like his father Ivan Kuleba while still in high school. After completing international law at Shevchenko Kyiv University, he began working at the Foreign Ministry.

It's true that my father helped me get started. I got a startup capital, but what I did with it was up to me, said Kuleba.

Over the years, he worked in the representations of Ukraine to the OSCE and the Council of Europe.

Relationships can be built with anyone. The key is to understand that we are all human, we like to eat well and drink a little. Many issues could be resolved over borscht with lard and a shot of vodka.

After the parliamentary elections in 2019, Kuleba was offered the position of Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration.

Oleksiy Honcharuk (Zelenskyy's first prime minister) offered me the portfolio while forming his new cabinet. He said he was looking for people smarter than himself. I liked that, said Kuleba. I was only interested in one question: will we integrate with the European Union, or just pretend? The answer was 'integrate.' I didn't need to know more.

A year later, Honcharuk left, and at 39, Kuleba became the youngest foreign minister in Ukraine's history.

At that time, my father was the ambassador in Armenia, so according to the law, we had a conflict of interest. He called me and said: 'I've lived my life, done my job. I won't stand in your way. Your mother and I are ready to return to Ukraine and play with our grandchildren.'

Kuleba brought a new managerial approach to the ministry. He treated each task as a project and expected quick results. The old guard did not like this; they believed that diplomacy is a process that cannot be captured in numbers or tables. But the young and partners greatly appreciated these methods, said Oleksandr Kraiev, an expert at the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism."

He also had a habit of coming to work with a French bulldog named Marik, who was rescued from Mariupol. He had his own pillow in the office.

Kuleba held the position for four years, record-breaking considering the conditions for a minister in Zelenskyy's government.

He fit perfectly into the new Ukrainian diplomacy. The president expected determination and consistency. And although some of Kuleba's ambassadors behaved almost aggressively, he adhered to diplomatic frameworks, said Kraiev.

Overall, I always leaned towards tough reactions, but also strongly calculated ones. Eventually, I came around to this style after I started working with the president, Kuleba recalled during one of the interviews.

After the Russian invasion, Kuleba became an advocate of "wartime diplomacy," which in practice meant using ultimatum language in discussions with partners.

On the night of February 23 to 24, I was flying from Istanbul to Warsaw, I couldn't stop crying. It was the only time I allowed myself to feel moved because I fully understood the scale of the tragedy that was about to happen, Kuleba admitted.

In another conversation, he explained: "Classical diplomacy assumes that you must always have a retreat strategy if your plan fails. In wartime diplomacy, you either achieve your goal, or you're finished."

December 2022. Meeting in the Oval Office. On the right, Joe Biden and his advisors, dressed in suits. On the left, Zelenskyy and his chief of staff Andriy Yermak, both, as usual, in khaki colours. Kuleba breaks the pattern: he sits next to them, but he's wearing a grey sweater and sneakers.

With his attire, he broke all protocols.

Later, one of the Americans told me that I was the first person to come to a meeting with the U.S. president in sneakers.

But it was one of the few high-level meetings that Kuleba would later participate in. Like his attire in the Oval Office, he was increasingly out of sync with the atmosphere on Bankova Street, where the president's office is located.

Only Yermak now accompanies Zelenskyy on the most important trips. More often, Yermak himself undertakes strategic negotiations for Ukraine, which causes confusion and irritation in Kyiv, as the main diplomat—Kuleba—is sent to countries of the Global South. Rumours begin circulating that Yermak does not trust Kuleba, so he cuts him off from the most important matters.

Kuleba did not have it easy. Under Zelenskyy's rule, foreign policy became a very competitive area. The president's office wanted to take over a large part of foreign policy; also, individual ministries tried to work with foreign partners. But even in these conditions, Kuleba worked very effectively, said Kraiev.

We have a kind of tripartite division in foreign policy in Ukraine. The president's office, meaning Andriy Yermak, is responsible for the most important direction, namely the United States, arms supplies, and global peace summits. For European and partly Euro-Atlantic integration—Olga Stefanishyna. All other matters fall on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, explained Fesenko. At the same time, Kuleba always knew his place. He clearly understood that the president's office sets the directions and priorities of foreign policy. The ministry is only an executor.

Kuleba then began to focus on building relations with the countries of the Global South. In the fall of 2022, he called Ukraine's new policy the "Ukrainian-African Renaissance."

Thanks to his initiative, five new embassies were opened in Africa, and the diplomatic staff in Latin America was increased. Looking back, Kuleba's policy towards the Global South was quite successful. It's not spectacular, because in many countries, they had to start from scratch, explaining and clarifying that Ukraine is not part of Russia, said Kraiev.

The first rumours of Kuleba's dismissal appeared a year ago.

At that time, he confessed that he had not managed to complete all the tasks set by the president. The truth is, many of them were inherently unrealistic, such as lifting restrictions on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory. However, Zelenskyy expects results; he is a maximalist, said Fesenko.

It's unclear what ultimately led to Kuleba's dismissal. According to Fesenko, under his leadership, the foreign ministry faced many organizational problems, but they were not critical. The fact that Kuleba is highly rated by society, with a trust level of 43%, while Zelenskyy's is at 50%, may have also played a role.

But likely, the main reason was emotional exhaustion. Kuleba has been a minister for four years, of which two and a half are years of invasion. This exhaustion may have been the reason for some of Kuleba's statements, such as the one that caused a scandal in Poland. Now Zelenskyy wants greater efficiency, more classical diplomacy. Although not a direct reason for dismissal, the president's office may have decided that Kuleba needs a break, said Fesenko.

It also seems that the dismissal had been planned for some time. In April this year, Andriy Sybiha, a professional diplomat who was deputy chief of staff to Yermak, was sent to the foreign ministry as the first deputy minister. Officially, it was explained that he was to help Kuleba bring order to the ministry.

However, according to Sevgil Musayeva, this was a slow preparation for changes in the foreign ministry.

Andriy Sybiha is today mentioned as the most likely successor to Kuleba, she explains.

Under Sybiha's leadership, the ministry's policy will likely change little, as it will still be set by the president's office. He himself has extensive experience.

He will continue the current line. What is worrying is that now all foreign policy will be concentrated in Yermak's hands.

In Ukraine, it's long been alleged that Yermak has amassed power comparable to Zelenskyy's. Further connections in the government strengthen fears that the office surrounds the president with loyalists without their own opinions. Another deputy of Yermak, Mykola Tochytsky, is a probable candidate for Minister of Culture and Information Policy.

On the morning of the first day of voting on the government reorganization, the head of the presidential faction Servant of the People announced a "big overhaul." However, information about the dismissed ministers and their potential successors was received by deputies at the last minute, meaning no debates took place in parliamentary committees.

As a result, part of the Servant of the People deputies did not even appear in the Verkhovna Rada. Those who did only voted for part of the dismissals. For example, the dismissal of Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk was not successful due to a lack of votes.

When the time came to vote on Dmytro Kuleba's dismissal, the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada suddenly adjourned the session.

It was a clear signal from the Servant of the People faction that they are not ready to vote for the dismissal of such a popular minister like Kuleba. They wanted to first understand the logic of this change, said Fesenko.

On the evening of September 4, Zelenskyy personally held a meeting with the faction. According to unofficial information, the president made a deal with his own party. On Thursday, September 5, votes were held on Vereshchuk and Kuleba.

Rumours circulated that Kuleba, after his dismissal, might leave for Brussels, where he would become an ambassador and oversee the merging of the representation with Ukraine's missions to the EU. However, sources say Kuleba rejected this offer.

What is clear is that the announced "big reorganization" is only a cosmetic change. Most of the dismissed ministers will receive new positions today. For example, Olga Stefanishyna, dismissed yesterday as Deputy Prime Minister for Eurointegration, will again receive the same ministry, along with the Ministry of Justice.

This is explained by the need for someone to adapt Ukrainian law to EU requirements, said Mykola Davydiuk, a political scientist.

Highly praised Oleksandr Kamyshin lost his position in the Ministry of Strategic Industries to move to the president's office. Similarly, Iryna Vereshchuk will deal with social issues in Zelenskyy's administration.

There is a growing demand in society for changes in the government. We haven't had parliamentary and presidential elections due to the war. But this reshuffle did not satisfy that need. Valuable individuals disappeared from the government, and those who are or were involved in corruption remain in their positions, said Musayeva.

Tatiana Kolesnychenko