Ukraine escalates with targeted strikes on Russian energy system
Ukraine is targeting Russia's energy infrastructure, hitting oil depots, artillery, and a power plant. "This is the start of a long-term campaign aimed at the Russian energy system," says Konrad Muzyka, a military expert and head of Rochan Consulting.
Ukraine is responding to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Their general staff reported effective attacks on an oil depot in Rostov Oblast, in Kirov Oblast (around 1,500 kilometres from the border with Ukraine), and also an artillery depot in Voronezh Oblast, about 400 kilometres from Moscow.
In the last few dozen hours, new reports, including recordings from attacks in Russia, have appeared on social media. Loud explosions were heard near the Konakovo power plant in Tver Oblast, one of the largest energy producers in central Russia, and at the Moscow Oil Refinery.
"In the coming months, Russia will be the target of many attacks, not only on military targets but also on technical infrastructure targets. This is the start of a long-term campaign aimed at the Russian energy system," says military analyst Konrad Muzyka, head of Rochan Consulting.
The expert highlights two factors enabling such strikes. "Firstly, production has ramped up significantly, and Ukrainians are now capable of building huge reconnaissance and strike drones - including those with a longer range. Secondly, they are conducting very advanced work on producing their long-range missiles - we're talking about cruise and ballistic missiles," Muzyka notes.
Volodymyr Zelensky reported positive test results of such a missile at the end of August. However, production capabilities remain an open question. At the same time, Ukrainian Defence Forces used a long-range drone of their own production for the first time against a military target in Crimea.
"This year, Ukrainians planned to produce a million different types of drones. The Minister of Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, recently said that their production capacities far exceed that million," adds Konrad Muzyka.
Stemming from the other side's weakness
The Wirtualna Polska interlocutor points out that effective Ukrainian operations using drones on the aggressor's territory expose the Russians' shortcomings and their Achilles' heel. "The effectiveness of drones stems from the other side's weakness," says military expert Konrad Muzyka.
"Ukrainian aircraft can fly hundreds or even thousands of kilometres, indicating that Russia's air defence is patchy and very shallow. Probably, most of the systems are near the border, and when Ukrainians cross that zone, they fly on undetected," he adds.
The head of Rochan Consulting emphasizes that if the strikes are to have a long-term impact, they need to occur with greater frequency and intensity. "A drone strike once every two weeks or once a month is far too little. There is too much time for maintaining tension and anxiety; the Russians will have time to regroup, move production, and transfer forces," Muzyka assesses. However, he is convinced that "with the emergence of new Ukrainian capabilities, there will certainly be more attacks".
Requests to "slow down" may be made
How do Western partners react to raids on Russian territory? Our interlocutor points out that they are not received with excessive enthusiasm. "Ukrainians undertake actions that are most advantageous from their perspective, but which do not necessarily align with Western methods of conducting war," believes Konrad Muzyka.
"I think that in private conversations, there may be requests to 'slow down' some actions, which, in my opinion, will not happen. Ukraine is disappointed with Western aid. At this stage, they are carrying out operations that they believe have the highest chances of success and the greatest chances of ending the war," he assesses.
He recalls that in the winter of 2022, Reuters published an article in which the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and Amnesty International indicated that Russian attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure could constitute war crimes. Earlier, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, had made similar statements.
"Attacks on civilian infrastructure are prohibited," Muzyka points out. "However, the war on the Russian side is conducted by the state; essentially, the whole state is involved in this process, so Ukrainians probably assume that everything that affects Russia's capabilities needs to be destroyed to conduct the war," he emphasizes.
