UK and France emerge as new European leaders amidst Germany's decline
With Donald Trump's return to influence, the United Kingdom and France are stepping up as European leaders. Bloomberg has analyzed their roles against the backdrop of Germany's waning influence and the emerging prominence of other countries.
The United Kingdom and France, long-standing allies and sometimes rivals, are now cooperating to tackle geopolitical challenges. According to Bloomberg, these two countries have united post-Brexit to support Ukraine and European defense. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have pledged to send troops to Ukraine to secure peace with Russia.
Bloomberg highlights that the combined military, nuclear, and intelligence capabilities of the United Kingdom and France offer them an advantage over the traditional Franco-German alliance. Germany, grappling with internal issues, can no longer fulfill its role as Europe's leader.
However, both Starmer and Macron face obstacles. Starmer, who came to power promising to end austerity measures, needs to find resources to boost defense spending. Meanwhile, Macron, unable to run for re-election, must deal with Marine Le Pen's growing popularity.
Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse and a key lender in many crises, has largely been overlooked in this discussion. Following World War II, its military was intentionally weakened, and a major obstacle to increasing defense spending remains—not just a psychological one, but also the constitutional debt brake, as Bloomberg points out.
Italy and other key figures
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who maintains good relationships with Trump and Elon Musk, could play a vital role in negotiations with the USA. However, her country falls short of meeting the requirement to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense, and her pro-Russian coalition partners may impede pro-European policies.
Bloomberg also identifies other figures who could affect Ukraine's future, including NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, King Charles III, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and even former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Germany and Turkey in the new arrangement
Despite being Europe's economic powerhouse, Germany has been sidelined in current discussions. Its diminished military after World War II and the constitutional debt brake make it challenging to increase defense spending.
With the second-largest military in NATO, Turkey can also play a critical role. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated, "it is Türkiye and its full EU membership that can save the European Union from its deadlock." However, Turkey is demanding a considerable price for its support.
