Trump's odds rise: Betting shops predict election outcome

This marks a significant rise, especially since Trump surpassed Kamala Harris in these forecasts just two weeks ago.

Elon Musk, the owner of X and Tesla, who recently backed Trump's campaign with $75 million, emphasizes the importance of these predictions. In his view, betting shops are more reliable than traditional polls because they reflect the real financial risks taken by bettors. History seems to support this idea; in the last 158 years, bookmakers have only been wrong twice in predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections.

The current situation differs from previous election campaigns. Unlike in 2016 when Trump was an outsider both in bets and polls, this time his standing in public opinion polls is also strengthening. The changes are particularly notable in key swing states. According to Quinnipiac University, Trump is beginning to gain an advantage over Harris even in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Recent polls in swing states conducted by Quinnipiac University have revealed developments in two key states for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. In a poll released on Wednesday, Trump was leading in Georgia by 7 percentage points (52 percent to 45 percent), just a few weeks before election day. In a separate poll conducted in North Carolina, Harris was leading by a mere 2 percentage points (49 percent to 47 percent), indicating that the state remains uncertain.

Analysts point to several factors that may contribute to Trump's rising support. One is the fading novelty effect of Kamala Harris’s candidacy. Additionally, the positive impression she made during the debate with Trump on September 10 appears to have diminished in importance.

Trump, conversely, is focusing on issues that may be perceived as Harris's weak points: immigration and the economy. His rhetoric on these topics is becoming sharper. In Colorado, he announced that, if victorious, he would use the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to deport illegal immigrants. At another rally, he claimed that a Harris presidency would turn America into "one big migrant camp."

A key factor influencing voters' preferences is also the perception of the state of the economy. Although the Joe Biden administration, along with the Federal Reserve, has effectively reduced inflation to 2.4 percent annually, as many as 59 percent of Americans still perceive the country's economic situation as poor. This highlights how crucial subjective reality is for voters, which does not always align with the actual economic state.

Despite these efforts, for many centrist voters, backing a woman with liberal views, additionally of ethnic minority origin, might feel like too risky a choice. The coming weeks will determine whether Harris can reverse the unfavourable trend and convince undecided voters.