Trump's lead narrows: Harris gains ground in key states
According to the latest data from bookmakers, Donald Trump's chances in the U.S. presidential elections have declined, although he still holds an advantage. Over the course of a few weeks, his lead has decreased from 23 to just 10 percentage points, indicating a significant strengthening of Kamala Harris's position.
Economist Piotr Kuczyński noted unexpected changes in bookmakers' predictions. "Something strange is happening in the USA. A sudden shift among bookmakers. Trump's 23 percentage point lead suddenly turned into 10 percentage points. There are favourable trends for Kamala Harris, but I fear (because I could not support Donald Trump) that it may be too late," wrote the expert on the X platform.
The latest data from major bookmakers indeed show dynamic changes. According to realclearpolling.com, Trump's average probability of winning is currently 56.5%, but the downward trend is clear. Online bookmaker Bwin estimates the Republican candidate's chances at 58%, Polymarket at 52%, and Smarkets at 53%.
One of the recent polls (Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker) released three days before the election shows that Kamala Harris is leading the race against Donald Trump in Michigan, one of the key swing states, by just one percentage point.
Earlier Quinnipiac University polls showed a varied situation in the swing states. In Georgia, Trump maintains a 7-percentage-point lead (52% to 45%). However, in North Carolina, Harris is ahead with a lead of 2 percentage points (49% to 47%).
Several significant factors are influencing the campaign dynamic. Even though Joe Biden's administration, along with the Federal Reserve, has effectively reduced inflation to 2.4%, as many as 59% of Americans still rate the country's economic situation as poor. In his campaign, Donald Trump is focusing on immigration and economic issues, intensifying his rhetoric. He has already announced that if he wins, he will resort to the "Alien Enemies Act" of 1798 to deport illegal immigrants.
Analysts also note the effect of Harris's successful performance during the debate with Trump on September 10. The vice president's positive impression could have contributed to her rise in the polls.
