Trump's peace plan: New hope or peril for Ukraine's future?
Russia will do whatever it takes to push the front line as far as possible and engage in potential negotiations from a position of strength. Ukrainian media are in turmoil, while Russia is rejoicing following another leak about Trump’s peace plan.
Ukraine gives up NATO membership for 20 years. The front line remains frozen as the troops stand, and the occupied territories temporarily fall to Russia. The United States will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons to deter any future Russian attack - these are the latest unofficial reports about Donald Trump’s peace plan, as described by "The Wall Street Journal."
It is known that one version of the plan was submitted to Trump by his former associates: top national security adviser Gen. Keith Kellogg and Frederick Fleitz, a former National Security Council member and CIA analyst. Although the advisors presented their ideas, the newspaper emphasizes that Trump himself will make the final decision. The key issue is how to convince Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to start talks.
The President of Ukraine announced that he has already spoken with Trump after the election results were announced: - We agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our cooperation. Strong and unwavering U.S. leadership is vital for the world and for a just peace, he described the conversation. Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, stated on his behalf: "Russia will judge the actions of the US government, and any hypothetical discussions about plans to end the war in Ukraine are inappropriate. Putin remains open to constructive dialogue with the US, but Washington’s attitude is the opposite. Whether it will change will become clear in January."
Early January is the inauguration date for the newly elected president. Military experts in Ukraine comment that the upcoming two months are a "window for Russia" to decide the war on the battlefield.
Ukraine is in turmoil. They hope Biden will still help
Ukrainian media are flooded with comments on possible scenarios to end the war. In a report by the Unian agency discussing the state of the war, it is noted that in the last days of President Joe Biden's office, significant assistance can be provided to Ukraine.
- The United States could provide Ukraine with all the necessary long-range means, with which we could shoot down Russian Su-34s carrying anti-aircraft missiles and hit Russian territory with ATACMS, JASSM for F-16s, and so on. Then Russia simply could not implement its plans by February next year, said Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network platform, to Unian.
These hopes are juxtaposed with warnings. Many analysts believe that Ukraine's authorities will be forced into negotiations. Trump’s plan is said to include a point denying weapon supplies to Ukraine until Kyiv agrees to peace talks with Russia.
- On November 6, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine summarized the results of the three-month military operation in the Kursk region. It is possible that soon Kyiv will announce the successful completion of all tasks of this operation. This may therefore be a signal for Donald Trump of Kyiv’s readiness for potential negotiations, said political commentator Oleksandr Kharebin to Ukrainian television.
- It may happen that Ukraine, the General Staff, the president, and the command may acknowledge that the tasks of the Kursk operation have been completed. Their result may be a bargaining tool in negotiations regarding the establishment of certain lines after the war ends, the Ukrainian expert assessed.
