Russia's missile mystery: Potential ICBM use in Ukraine attack

In the attack on Ukraine on Thursday, November 21, missiles such as the Kh-101 and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, launched from a MiG-31K fighter jet, were reportedly used, along with—according to reports from Kyiv—an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). However, it is unclear which exact type of such weaponry was used by the Kremlin. Until official statements are released by state institutions, claims about the use of an ICBM should be treated as speculative.

In a conversation with Wirtualna Polska, Major Michał Fiszer, a former soldier, military pilot, and expert associated with the military sector and engaged in scientific work at Collegium Civitas, discussed the potential use of an intercontinental ballistic missile by Russia against Ukraine.

Fiszer emphasized that in the case of Thursday's attack, it's “not about the Kinzhal,” as it is a weapon used multiple times. The Kinzhal has frequently experienced technical issues—it has failed to reach its target and fell to the ground without detonation.

However, the likely use of an intercontinental missile deserves much more attention. Although its exact type isn’t known, it can be suspected it was the Rubezh or Topol. Both missiles have ranges of several thousand kilometres. "These are missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads to Europe or America. However, the Russians might have equipped it with a conventional warhead," notes Fiszer. If the Kremlin indeed resorted to using an ICBM, it would be the first-ever use of such a missile in combat conditions.

Fiszer emphasizes that in the case of an ICBM, the concerns are not about the missile's specifications, such as its range, but its potential to carry a nuclear warhead. Currently, there are no reports confirming that the Russians used this technology. It provides some insight into what Putin intends to achieve.

– This is a decisive form of warning against using nuclear weapons, but it is unlikely to happen – Fiszer believes. According to the expert, although Moscow is armed with approximately 500 land-based intercontinental missiles, "Russia will not use nuclear weapons because it makes no sense whatsoever."

The military expert suggests that similar attacks may be anticipated in the future. “For now, however, Russia must wait for the outcome,” he said in a conversation with Wirtualna Polska. He believes that the aggressor's army will not attack frequently, “because it will become mundane.” “It is possible that as Russia phases out old Topol systems and replaces them with Rubezh ones, older missiles will be launched instead of being disposed of,” he adds.

When asked about the possibility of using a nuclear warhead in an ICBM, the expert responds that such a possibility cannot be ruled out. – The Russians might use nuclear power to create a chilling effect – he claims. He adds, however, that it would not be a spectacular strike but the detonation of a small charge in, for example, the Black Sea, merely to demonstrate their power.

It is unclear what the Russians might have used in the attack on November 21. However, if it was the RS-26 Rubezh missile, it is worth noting that it is an ICBM weighing about 36,300 kilograms, which accelerates to speeds over 24,000 km/h (approximately Mach 20). The accuracy of this weapon is estimated at about 250 metres. This is an unacceptable value for a weapon intended for precise strikes but appropriate for attacks with a nuclear warhead.

The Thursday attack might also have included the Topol-M system, whose missile weighs over 47,200 kilograms and can reach a distance of about 11,000 kilometres. It travels at a similar speed to the RS-26, estimated at 27,000 km/h.