Russia's strategic push: Dnipropetrovsk braces for conflict
We must be prepared for Russian aggressors to enter the administrative borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, warned Col. Serhiy Hrabskiy, a reservist with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in Ukrainian media. Ukrainians find themselves in a difficult situation, striving to complete the construction of defence lines to halt Russia's advances.
Ukrainian and Western military experts agree that the battle near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine determines the potential entry of Russians into the Dnipropetrovsk region. The city of Pokrovsk is a logistical hub for Ukrainian defence. It connects to three main roads leading to the Dnipropetrovsk region and the city of Dnipro itself (the region's capital had a population of 980,000 before the war). Russian troops are located approximately 6.5 kilometres from the region's border.
An analysis in the Financial Times highlights that if Russian forces were to cross this line, it would mark the first assault on a new Ukrainian region since 2022, significantly impacting Kyiv's war efforts. According to the publication's correspondent reporting from the area, the region hosts military command centers and support forces, including volunteer groups and drone manufacturers and drone manufacturers.
Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak believes the Dnipropetrovsk region is one of the Kremlin's main targets. As early as a year ago, he predicted that the Russian plans for 2024 include reaching the line of the Dnipro River, which forms the natural border of eastern Ukraine. Russian territorial gains would then rely on this obstacle.
- Russian forces are employing the tactic of attacking in small groups. They don’t enter cities, as seen around Pokrovsk, but instead bypass them, cutting defenders off from supplies. Unfortunately, it's effective. Many thought the harsh autumn weather might halt the events on the Russian front. Unfortunately, that did not happen. The situation is expected to worsen in the winter. The Ukrainian army is experiencing a severe crisis due to a lack of reserves and exhaustion from combat, said Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces.
Military analyst Rob Lee points out the same problem in Ukrainian defence. "As long as this issue of lack of force continues to deepen, Ukraine takes on significant risks because its units may not be able to fill the gaps on the front," he assessed in his latest analysis.
Ukraine is racing against time to build fortifications
Col. Serhiy Hrabskiy told Ukrainian media that the Dnipropetrovsk region is not as densely built and industrialized as the Donetsk region, and the battles there will have a different character. - Open spaces allow for the mass use of drones. There is nowhere to hide, making moving soldiers a very high-risk operation - Hrabskiy assessed.
The Ukrainian agency UNIAN quotes Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov, who says that a second and third line of fortifications and trenches is necessary in the Dnipropetrovsk region. He also warns that the Russians threatened the region by advancing from the direction of Pokrovsk.
Media have reminded us that last year, the Dnipropetrovsk region spent the equivalent of CAD 9.8 million on constructing military installations. However, local journalists warned that the fortifications were not completed, and no workers or engineering troops were present in some sections.
The spokesperson for Ukraine's eastern command, Nazar Voloshyn, said a few days ago that the Russians were pushed back from Pokrovsk, and intense fighting is taking place near Kurakhove and Velika Novosilka. He reassured that, according to the command's assessment, the Russian forces deployed in this region do not seem large enough to launch an offensive on Dnipropetrovsk.
How large are the Russian forces in the region
Recently, it was reported that from September to the end of November, the Russians captured over 1,600 square kilometres in eastern Ukraine. Further gradual withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the battle in Donbas is inevitable, as the Russians hold at least a sixfold numerical advantage there. But the cost of progress is enormous casualties. With an estimated rate of 1,500 casualties per day (killed and wounded), October was the bloodiest month of the war for Russia, according to Russian independent media Verstka and The Insider.
Vladimir Putin wants to conclude several major battles, sealing territorial gains before the expected negotiations begin, ahead of the potential change in the U.S. administration to Donald Trump. This is a typical Russian action that may engage all available forces, commented Gen. Roman Polko, former commander of the GROM unit.
Ukrainian military correspondent Kostiantyn Mashovets stated that the Russian Eastern Force Group, operating in the direction of Velika Novosilka and Hulyaipole, consists of a maximum of 54,000 soldiers, 350 tanks, over 800 armoured fighting vehicles, slightly over 400 artillery systems, and about 100 multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS).
