Ukraine's unexpected missile strike challenges Russian defences
Ukrainians have claimed responsibility for an attack on Russian forces in December 2024 using the BM-30 Smerch system, despite theoretically having exhausted their supply of rockets. We explore how they could have obtained the necessary missiles and outline the capabilities of this system.
In recent years, Ukrainians have been actively working to enhance their capabilities in producing long-range weapons. It appears that beyond developing new missiles, they have also sought to restore or repair older or damaged units.
A video from the winter of 2024/2025 has recently surfaced, showing the OTR-21 Tochka system in use. Additionally, footage of the BM-30 Smerch system launch has also been released online. Russia was the primary producer of missiles for this system, which have a range of over 100 kilometres (62 miles) for newer models. Before the conflict, Ukraine also had its versions, similar to countries like India, which had licensed production.
Ukraine might have resumed production with assistance from countries such as the Czech Republic or Poland (WITU has showcased a 300 mm rocket engine that could theoretically be adapted for BM-30 missiles), or they might have acquired rockets or components discretely from India, similar to how they obtained 155 mm artillery shells.
BM-30 Smerch system — a post-Soviet system with immense striking power
Developed in the 1970s, BM-30 Smerch systems are formidable weapons capable of striking targets initially at 70 kilometres (43 miles), but this range has since increased to 90 kilometres (56 miles). Each 300 mm rocket weighs about 800 kilograms (1,764 pounds) and measures nearly eight metres (26 feet) in length, containing a warhead weighing about 250 kilograms (551 pounds). The warhead options include high-explosive-fragmentation, cluster containing anti-personnel, anti-armor bomblets, or mines.
These rockets are unguided, but the launcher, which carries 12 rockets, can fire them in less than 40 seconds. After the collapse of the USSR, both Russia and Ukraine followed the direction set by the USA with systems like M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS to design guided missiles using GPS and INS navigation.
Vilkha-M and Tornado-S missiles — the Eastern GMLRS equivalents
Before the full-scale war, Ukraine developed Vilkha-M1 guided rockets with a range of up to 150 kilometres (93 miles) and Vilkha-M2 with a range of up to 200 kilometres (124 miles). Russia, meanwhile, developed missiles for the Tornado-S system. In both cases, the warhead weight is reduced to about 170 kilograms (375 pounds) to allow for more fuel.
This, combined with the use of modern propellant mixtures and increased accuracy to within a few metres, creates a weapon with a range typically reserved for older ballistic missile systems like the OTR-21 Tochka. More significantly, the new missiles are compatible with existing BM-30 Smerch launchers, enabling the continued use of old launchers.
