Russia's nuclear doctrine shift aims to deter Western support for Ukraine

Russia is preparing to change its nuclear doctrine for the first time since 2020. The Kremlin claims this is intended to be a signal to the West. According to Pavel Podvig from the Institute for the Study of War, Putin aims to influence a potential decision to allow Ukraine to attack with long-range missiles.

The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for over two years. The authorities in the Kremlin periodically threaten the West with the use of nuclear weapons. This time, Putin has proposed changes to the nuclear doctrine. A new aspect is that Russia will treat an attack from a non-nuclear country, supported by a nuclear power, as joint aggression against Russia.

The Meduza portal notes that this possibility currently exists as well. Russia has promised not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states, except where they act jointly or in alliance with nuclear states.

This formulation is specifically designed to influence the current debate on allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons. However, such a possibility also exists in the current Russian doctrinal guidelines - says Pavel Podvig from the Institute for the Study of War in an interview with the portal.

The expert directly states that Russia will consider itself entitled to use nuclear weapons. On the other hand, he mentions the so-called "engagement trap," which means that "you promise to do something, and then when the time comes and they check whether you do it or not, it turns out it would have been better if you hadn't promised it."

Nuclear weapons will not be able to stop a large-scale offensive or, for example, an operation that took place in the Kursk region. There is an understanding that the use of nuclear weapons will shock the opponent and force them to stop, surrender, or retreat - Podvig believes in an interview with Meduza. - To make this shock truly shocking, it should be used in the way it was in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The expert also says that after the possible use of weapons, Russia would find itself in deep isolation. Moreover, Russian nuclear warheads are currently stored in warehouses, and several more steps need to be taken for possible use.