Russia's looming poly-crisis: Economy on the brink of collapse
Over the next five to ten years, I foresee a polycrisis in Russia, said Roland Freudenstein, a political scientist and director of the Brussels office of the Free Russia Foundation, in an interview with Deutsche Welle. The expert added that Russians will experience high inflation and face an economic catastrophe.
64-year-old Freudenstein believes that democracy will one day prevail in Russia as “no country in the world that cannot become a democracy." He cited Taiwan as an example, being "the most liberal democracy in East Asia" despite China's opposition.
However, the political scientist cautioned that Russian democracy will differ from German or French democracy. Nevertheless, freedom of speech and independent institutions will be present.
- Regardless of how much Russian democrats argue among themselves, they agree on this matter: the war against Ukraine is a great crime, and Putin must go - assessed Freudenstein.
Russia as the "junior partner of China"
In his opinion, Russia's democratization might begin by 2029. This will be linked to the detachment of autonomous republics like Dagestan from Moscow. However, not all regions will be eager to adopt democratic principles and declare independence. What future would Buryatia have then, both economically and politically? So, I think Russia as a whole is more resilient than it seems to us today, explains the scientist.
The disintegration of Putin's Russia will not be hindered by China. The "friendship" proclaimed by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping is actually supposed to be "hidden, total cultural hostility, and contempt." Beijing looks down on Moscow, which fears degradation.
If the average Russian doesn't forgive Putin for anything today, it's not for the war against Ukraine. Probably not even for the economic crisis. Rather, it's for the fact that Russia has become the junior partner of China. I don't think the vast majority of Russians accept this - assessed Freudenstein.
“Economic catastrophe”
The German expert has no illusions about the older generation of Russians, who find it hard to "break away from propaganda." However, he believes in younger citizens who are active on social media. It is said that 10 million Russians follow the Free Russia Foundation.
- They are very unhappy, but they know that if they take to the streets today with a poster saying "Down with Putin!", they will be jailed tomorrow for seven years - claims Freudenstein. He adds that up to 25 per cent of Russians benefit from Putin's rule. Despite this, "they will not die for Putinism." The political scientist believes that millions of citizens supported him out of fear and material motives and will not be able to engage in an armed struggle against democratic Russia. They will have to adapt to the changes.
These changes may occur within five to ten years. Freudenstein, "gazing" into a crystal ball, predicts that millions will feel the overheating of the Russian economy. This will be accompanied by the effects of the "military disaster" in the war against Ukraine. Republics will begin to collapse, leading to a crisis on multiple levels. The collapsing economy will result in the loss of Putin's power and the fall of the idea of Putinism. However, this would not be possible without the Kremlin's defeat in the war with Ukraine.
