Russian withdrawal from Syria: Navigating a troubled departure
The overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad means that the Russians will have to withdraw the soldiers and equipment they sent to Syria. The evacuation is facing difficulties — one of the ships sent for this purpose has broken down and is drifting off the coast of Portugal. Additionally, there is still a considerable amount of Russian equipment remaining at the last two bases.
By January 20, 2025, Russia is required to evacuate its soldiers from Syria along with equipment and dismantle military bases, according to unofficial information from the new Syrian authorities. Some Russian soldiers might be relocated to Libya.
Although — according to Ukrainian intelligence — Moscow is trying to negotiate with Damascus to keep a military contingent in Syria, the operation to withdraw Russian troops from Syria has already started. It is, however, encountering problems.
One particular issue is the malfunction of the civilian transport ship "Sparta," which is thought to be carrying equipment and soldiers being withdrawn from Syria. Due to a fuel system failure, "Sparta" is drifting along the coast of Portugal, and the crew is attempting to resolve the problem themselves.
A new Russian landing ship, "Ivan Gren," has also entered the Mediterranean Sea — one of two ships of project 11711 that were brought into service. These are relatively modern ships, delivered within the last decade (although construction took several years), with a length of about 135 metres and a displacement of approximately 7,300 tonnes. Ships of this type can accommodate up to 300 soldiers, 40 armoured personnel carriers, or 13 tanks.
Russian aircraft and helicopters in Syria
Simultaneously — as highlighted by the Ukrainian service Defence Express — the future of the aviation component of the Russian contingent in Syria remains uncertain. After the fall of al-Assad, the Russians sought refuge in two military bases — the port of Tartus and the Humaymim airbase. Around the latter, unidentified drones fly unimpeded, and — as shown in available footage — Syrians are throwing stones at Russian soldiers.
In a video recorded by one of the drones and published on December 12, the Ukrainian service meticulously counts seven Su-24M bombers, four or five Su-35 or Su-30 aircraft, three Mi-8 helicopters, and two each of Ka-52 and Mi-24/35. There are 18–19 machines, likely representing the most valuable part of the Russian contingent.
