Russian hypersonic missiles neutralized by aging patriots

The attack carried out by the Russians on Kyiv on October 7, 2024, was planned to have missiles strike streets crowded with people leaving shelters after the alarm. The Russian intentions fell through because the Kinzhal missiles—once considered unstoppable—are now an easy target for the older American Patriot systems.

On October 7, in the morning hours Eastern Time, the Russians attacked the Ukrainian capital with two types of weapons. First, 32 drones from the Shahed family arrived. Although they were shot down, the attack triggered an alarm. After Ukrainian air defence eliminated the threat, two Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles approached.

The attack was potentially very dangerous. Since the Kinzhal travels at hypersonic speed (above Mach 5), the time from its detection to the moment it strikes the target is too short for civilians to find shelter. As noted by the Defence 24 service, in this case, the Kinzhals could have struck when the streets of Kyiv were crowded with people leaving shelters after repelling the Shahed attack.

For this reason, Ukraine announces an alarm not only when there is information about incoming Kinzhals but also when it is detected that their carriers—MiG-31K aircraft carrying one Kh-47 missile under the fuselage—are taking off from airports in Russia or Belarus.

In the first year of the war, Russians could attack Ukraine with Kinzhals with a very high probability of success. The Kinzhal moves so fast that for older anti-aircraft systems, detecting it, tracking the missile can be problematic.

The short reaction time of anti-aircraft systems also means that not all systems are able to generate the data needed to launch counter-missiles. Therefore, in 2022, the Ukrainians themselves admitted that destroying incoming Kinzhals with the anti-aircraft weapons they had at that time was impossible.

The situation changed dramatically with the delivery of Western anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, including the MIM-104 Patriot. A particularly embarrassing failure for Russia was an attack carried out on the night of May 15-16, 2023, when out of 18 missiles fired at Kyiv, including six Kinzhals and cruise missiles, the Ukrainian defence shot down all 18.

In the case of the attack on October 7, 2024, both Kinzhals were destroyed. However, due to their high speed, the debris from their interception fell on populated areas, though it did not cause significant damage.

The effects of an attack with a third Kinzhal, which had a completely different target—the airfield in Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast—remain unknown. According to Ukrainian sources, the Russian missile fell "in the vicinity" of the airfield. This is a base where—according to unofficial reports—Ukrainian F-16s are temporarily stationed.