Russian forces intensify artillery tactics in Kursk region
In the Kursk region, Russian forces have brought in heavy artillery, tanks, and armoured personnel carriers from the Donbas. This may indicate that Russian towns and villages could experience the same devastation that parts of Ukraine have suffered. The cost seems irrelevant; displacing Ukrainians is the main focus.
The Kursk Military Group is struggling to meet the deadlines set by Vladimir Putin for regaining territories lost in August after the Ukrainian offensive. Originally expected to finish by the end of September and then by mid-November, Putin has now extended an "ultimate" deadline until the inauguration of Donald Trump, which is January 20.
Meanwhile, the Russians need to recapture about 700 square kilometres out of about 1,300 square kilometres. Even with their best efforts and speed in advancing, the troops, led directly by the Deputy Defence Minister, General Yunus-bek Yevkurov, are unlikely to meet the deadline.
After taking control of parts of the Kursk region, Ukrainians constructed field fortifications in several areas, making Russian attacks largely ineffective. Additionally, they are launching further counterattacks, temporarily pushing Russian forces back from captured territories. This week, Russian media primarily covered the capture of Kurakhove's ruins, reported successes in Toretsk, and a thwarted Ukrainian assault in the Kursk region.
"At about 9:00 am Moscow time, in order to halt the advance of Russian troops in the Kursk direction, the enemy launched a counterattack," the Russian Ministry of Defence reported.
In response, Russian artillery and aviation launched an offensive, destroying two tanks, an armoured vehicle, and seven infantry fighting vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they added.
Kremlin propaganda consistently claims heavy Ukrainian losses and that the "invincible army" is pushing them back across the border. However, this is only partly true, as the situation remains complex for the Russians, with news of regaining occupied villages still infrequent.
Russians face challenges
Though the Russians recaptured about 40% of lost territory by the end of the year, by January 2025, they encounter difficulties advancing further. Following additional counteroffensives, Ukrainian units moved south from the village of Bierdin to central Ruskie Porechne and central Novosotnitsky, expanding the controlled zone northeast of Sudzha by roughly 5 to 6 kilometres.
Intense battles continue over these areas, with Russians gaining ground only to retreat again. The fierce fighting has resulted in significant losses, forcing the longest-serving brigades to withdraw. For instance, the 155th and 810th Independent Guards Naval Infantry Brigades, deployed to the Kursk region in mid-August, both suffered over half their personnel and equipment by November and December.
Adding to difficulties, Ukrainian rocket artillery executed precise attacks on the 810th Brigade's command post on December 25 and January 7. The full extent of Russian losses remains unknown, but brigade withdrawals began following the second attack.
The replacement units have not been identified yet. However, a larger-scale operation is expected to commence only upon their arrival.
Currently, Russians are deploying more heavy artillery to the Kursk region to eliminate Ukrainian fortifications. This marks a tactical shift observed in the latter half of last year. Instead of shelling large front-line segments, Russians now focus attacks on narrow lanes. After devastating these areas, small groups of soldiers are sent in to clear out remaining defenders.
This wide-ranging tactic was employed by Russians during World War II, approximately 80 years ago, and similarly during the attack on Grozny 30 years ago.
Notable recent examples include Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar, where more than 90% of the cities were destroyed. Russians showed little concern that these were reportedly Russian cities. Will Sudzha face the same fate? That seems likely.
City destroyers
Ukrainians near Sudzha constructed field fortifications similar to those in Bakhmut and Vuhledar. The Russians struggled to capture those cities, so they focused on destroying infrastructure and communication routes before sending infantry through the ruins. During these times, they utilised rocket artillery and the heaviest tube artillery. A key element was the 2S7 Pion with a 203 mm calibre.
Today, it's unlikely the 2S7 Pion will create "nuclear" corridors. Currently, they aim to dismantle fortification lines and obliterate cities. A 110-kilogram explosive shell can create a crater 5 metres deep or demolish a small single-family home. Recently, North Korean M-1989 Koksan guns were incorporated into Russian artillery, with the first units assuming combat positions in early January.
Considering past Russian artillery use, Sudzha is expected to suffer similarly to Bakhmut or Vuhledar. As a small town with about 5,000 residents, the Russians have shown their resolve to achieve objectives, regardless of cost.
