Russian convoy denied entry: Shifting power dynamics in Syria
The Russian military convoy was prevented from entering the naval base in Tartus, Syria. This is further evidence of the challenging situation Russians have encountered following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. They have not only lost access to key bases, but they are also facing difficulties in evacuating their forces and equipment.
Two facilities in Syria held significant importance for the Russians—the Humaymim airbase in Latakia province and the base in the port city of Tartus. The new Syrian authorities are not favourable to Moscow and have been systematically expressing this. In January, the lease agreement was cancelled, which granted Russia access to the Tartus port, and the movement of cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II was hindered.
Syrians did not let the Russian convoy into the port in Tartus
As reported by Turkish media, "the Syrian Ministry of Defence prevented a Russian military convoy from entering the base in Tartus." This is confirmed by recordings published on social media, showing a convoy of more than 30 vehicles turned around—after an eight-hour wait at the checkpoint, according to Turkish sources—just before entering the base in Tartus.
The Defence Express service, specializing in military topics, noted that among the equipment transported by the Russians were parts of the S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft systems, as well as missiles dedicated to them. This confirms that there is still a lot of valuable Russian weaponry in Syria—even though many resources have already been evacuated either by sea or transported to the Humaymim airbase.
Syria may fall under the umbrella of another power
The importance of the Tartus base for Russians was explained by, among others, British military intelligence, which stated in one of the communications that "there is no comparable alternative base for the Russian navy in the region."
Although Moscow is trying to negotiate with the new Syrian authorities (who primarily demand the handover of Bashar al-Assad), they may not achieve their intended goals, particularly the primary goal of accessing Syrian bases.
Even more so, another power could bring the country, which has been favourable to Putin for years, under its influence. In early February, Reuters reported that interim President Ahmed al-Shara is negotiating a defence pact with Turkey. It is expected to establish two Turkey-controlled military bases in Syria and deploy dozens of F-16 fighters there.
