Russia intensifies military activity near Ukraine's northeastern border

Increased Russian activity in the border area was reported on Tuesday by Andriy Demchenko, spokesman for Ukraine's State Border Service. He warned that actions might extend the front line. Earlier, the head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that the Russian Federation plans to move towards the Kharkiv and Sumy directions.

"Recently, a Russian military train was spotted near the town of Yefremov in the Tula region, heading southeast towards the border with the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine. The military equipment seen on the train, including bridging equipment and transport and logistics equipment, has new tactical markings, which were recently observed during Russian offensive operations in the Kharkiv region", reports OSINTdefender, an open-source monitoring group of military conflicts in Europe and worldwide, on the X platform.

A social media post comments that the situation is starting to resemble January and February 2022, when Vladimir Putin's troops were preparing to invade their neighbor. Experts from OSINTdefender diagnose that it could be a new Russian operation in the north and northeast of Ukraine.

The new tactical symbol now replaces the letter Z, with which Putin's army went to war. At the beginning of the aggression, this symbol appeared not only on tanks and guns but also in the windows of homes and offices in Russia, and even on the clothing of athletes representing Moscow.

However, as reported by the independent Ukrainian agency Unian, according to expert Serhiy Hrabskiy, the enemy does not currently have sufficient resources for such an offensive. Therefore, it is possible that it is merely provocative actions.

Military expert Serhiy Hrabskiy, a reserve colonel, a former employee of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, and participant in peace operations in Kosovo and Iraq, assesses that there is currently no threat of a Russian attack on Sumy and Chernihiv, as the enemy does not have the resources for it. The colonel commented on the reports of Ukraine's State Border Service in the program "Jedini Noviny."

We must understand that we do not have peaceful areas on the Russian Federation's border with Ukraine. It is a zone of continuous fighting, reconnaissance and sabotage group activities, constant shelling, missile strikes, and mortar attacks, notes the military expert. He added that it is certainly about a "change of format" because the enemy does not have sufficient resources for an assault.

Hrabskiy also emphasized that intensification of military activities in this direction is, of course, possible. However, the "number and quality of troops concentrated there" does not threaten Sumy and Chernihiv.

Not many tanks and armored personnel carriers or self-propelled guns are visible. "Directly from the parade to war", specialists comment on social media.

Russians have already had successes in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. They managed to enter these areas after the aggression on Ukraine in February 2022.

However, Ukrainian defenders managed to push the enemy back just a few weeks later. In April, the head of the Chernihiv region, Vyacheslav Chaus, conveyed that the Russians had already left the outskirts of Chernihiv, while Dmytro Zhyvytsky, head of the Sumy region, stated on state television that Russian troops no longer occupy any towns or villages in his region and have mostly withdrawn, abandoning much equipment.