NATO's €40 billion commitment: bolstering Ukraine's defence strategy

Not €100 billion over five years anymore, but roughly €40 billion annually. This is the amount NATO countries, as announced by the Secretary General of the Alliance in Prague, will support Ukraine in its defence against Russia, writes Deutsche Welle.

– As the war has evolved, our support has evolved, – said Jens Stoltenberg on Friday at 10:00 AM during a press conference after the informal meeting of foreign ministers of the Alliance countries in Prague. This was his response to the increasing number of NATO member states agreeing to the use of weapons donated to Ukraine for attacking military targets on Russian territory.

After Poland, Estonia, and Sweden, which imposed no restrictions on Kyiv's use of donated equipment from the beginning, followed by the United Kingdom, France, and eventually the United States, Germany also announced such a decision on Friday.

– There was increasing pressure on the German government in this matter, especially on the Chancellor. There were many voices in the coalition calling for a change of course. Eventually, Olaf Scholz had to react, – assesses Thomas Gutschker, the Brussels correspondent of the German daily "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung," in an interview with DW. – It was impossible to explain to the public why Ukraine should not defend itself against attacks directly from Russian territory, – he adds.

Of course, this is about Kharkiv being shelled by artillery and rockets fired from behind the Ukrainian-Russian border, which is less than 50 kilometres from the city center.

It's not the first time Berlin has taken such significant steps; it was only after Washington made such a decision. It was precisely the same with the tanks. Olaf Scholz blocked the delivery of Leopards to Ukraine until Joe Biden agreed to deliver Abrams tanks to it.

Does this mean he will now give the green light for the delivery of Taureuses, i.e., long-range missiles? – This cannot be ruled out, – answers Gutschker. – Whenever the federal government refused to take various steps, it later took them anyway, – he adds.

It seems that NATO's aid concepts for Ukraine are evolving much faster than the issue of various types of weapons deliveries and their usage. On Thursday, Jens Stoltenberg spoke about the Ukraine Fund, to which member states were supposed to contribute €100 billion for five years of support for Kyiv. He proposed this idea in early April but had trouble convincing partners.

By Friday, the concept had changed. NATO is to help Ukraine, at least as it has done so far. The NATO chief calculated it. The Alliance countries spent €40 billion annually supporting Kyiv during the first two years of Russia's war against Ukraine. This should continue, but this time, it will be a joint commitment distributed proportionally to each member's capabilities.

It appears that this idea has gained much more support among the ministers debating in Prague than the previous one, even though NATO countries would have to provide twice as much money over five years as they were supposed to put into the Ukraine Fund. – But we don't know how long this war will last, – explains the Berlin correspondent of FAZ to DW. He believes it's about finding a solution that allows Ukraine's allies to save face.

The issue with the planned five-year fund would be committing to long-term obligations in many countries. Many countries do not like to provide figures that exceed the current budget year, claims Gutschker.

The new concept eliminates this problem because it talks about an annual amount. However, the hardest nut to crack remains: how to divide the €40 billion among the 32 member states of the Alliance. When Stoltenberg says that, according to their capabilities, he knows well that a metric must be chosen. Usually, this indicator is GDP, reminded the NATO Secretary General.

But other solutions are also possible. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský wisely noted that the Alliance members have a month to consider this. Decisions will be made at the July summit in Washington. Lipavský hopes to find a transparent and fair solution for NATO's support for Ukraine.

While financial issues probably require further debate on the fundamental problem, it seems there is almost complete consensus in the Alliance, with Hungary being the exception. – We know that if Russia's aggression is allowed to proceed in Ukraine with impunity, it will not stop with Ukraine, – said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Prague. According to him, other aggressors in other parts of the world – seeing such an example – will consider conducting their attacks. Therefore, by strengthening Ukraine and showing determination, "we're also strengthening the security of the United States, of Europe, of free countries all around the world," said Blinken.