Russia evacuates ships from Tartus amid rebel advances
Russia has begun evacuating ships from the naval base in Tartus, Syria, following the swift advance of Islamist rebels in the region, reports Naval News. Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence indicates that the regime's forces and Russian military units are "experiencing significant losses, fleeing positions, abandoning weapons and equipment, and their retreat is chaotic."
According to sources, on the morning of December 2, the tanker "Jelnia"—key to maintaining Russian forces in the Mediterranean Sea—departed from Tartus. Other units are also likely to have left the base. The Russian naval group in Syria currently consists of five ships and one submarine. This group includes two "Admiral Gorshkov" class frigates, an "Admiral Grigorovich" class frigate, a modernized "Kilo" class submarine, and two auxiliary ships.
Panic and chaos after rebel attack
"There is a strong likelihood that the withdrawal is related to the worsening situation in Syria," wrote analyst James Droxford. Following the departure of Russian ships, the naval base in Tartus may be abandoned, with a high probability that the ships will be relocated to the Baltic Sea—speculates Naval News. On their journey, they might stop in Algeria or Libya.
However, if Russia decides to maintain the base in Tartus, it will need to dispatch significant reinforcements, which could take weeks to arrive.
The naval base in Tartus, located on Syria's Mediterranean coast, is a strategic facility for Russia. The Soviet Navy was stationed there from 1971, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the ships were withdrawn. Russian forces returned to Tartus in 2012 when Moscow intervened in the Syrian civil war on President Assad's side. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia bolstered its forces in Tartus to counter newly present NATO aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean Sea.
Intelligence: fleeing positions, chaotic retreat
On Tuesday, Ukrainian intelligence highlighted in its latest communication that, according to its information, the personnel of the Russian military contingent in Syria is "in a state of depression." "The government forces and military units of the aggressor country are suffering significant losses, fleeing from positions, abandoning weapons and equipment, and their retreat is chaotic," it stated.
According to intelligence, planned rotations of Russian troops in Syria have been halted, and Arabic-Russian translators are being urgently deployed to the city of Hama, where fighting continues—likely for the needs of Russian Armed Forces officers trying to discipline Bashar al-Assad's troops.
Mercenaries from so-called "private military companies" have been sent to assist in Syria.
Unexpected rebel attack on Assad's regime
In late November, thousands of Syrian rebels, led by the group "Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS), a faction originating from al-Qaeda, launched an offensive from the Idlib province. Within a few days, they reached Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, and occupied its center. The rebels also advanced south towards Hama, capturing dozens of other localities along the way.
The rebels released a video featuring their leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who declared that his fighters "will not rest until they reach the heart of Damascus"—the capital of Syria. In response, Assad appealed for help to his allies—Russia and Iran, who are, however, embroiled in their own military conflicts with Ukraine and Israel.
The Syrian army denied the rebels' successes, announcing that it is redeploying forces and preparing to launch a counterattack with the help of Russian fighter jets. Subsequently, Russian airstrikes targeted the city of Idlib and HTS positions in the Aleppo and Hama provinces.
On December 1, it was announced that Russia had replaced the commander of its military group in Syria. After Aleppo was captured by opposition forces, Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel was succeeded by Colonel General Alexander Chaiko, who previously led a failed attempt to capture Kyiv—reported pro-Russian bloggers.
