Ukraine's staggering losses amid fears of Russian offensive
Fewer than 80,000 killed - these are the figures about the losses of Ukraine's military presented to the media by the country's president, Volodymyr Zelensky. According to analysts, Ukraine finds itself in a dire situation. A Russian offensive towards Zaporizhzhia is becoming increasingly likely.
- This is not the time to compete over which side has suffered more losses. The Ukrainian army is in a dire situation. It lacks the strength to stop Russia and to secure its positions. This is a real tragedy - comments Polish Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces.
- At the beginning of the war, the Russians suffered higher losses than Ukraine. In the current phase, due to Russia's strategic advantage and change in tactics, I think these losses are similar - he assesses.
The spokesperson references media reports and comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. - Recently, some in, I believe, the American press reported that 80,000 Ukrainians had been killed. I want to tell you that, no, (the number of those killed is) less, much less - said the Ukrainian leader in an interview with Kyodo News agency. He emphasized that since September, for every fallen Ukrainian, there have been eight Russians.
The Ukrainian politician did not have much good news to share. He announced that, thanks to strong defence, the Ukrainian army managed to thwart Russian plans to capture and occupy the cities of Kharkiv and Sumy. - The enemy is advancing in the East, because we do not have enough well-equipped brigades and this is a fact, but we are working on it. Of the 14 teams that we agreed on, a little more than 2 Teams were trained in total. We asked for at least 10 to complete, but we wanted to have 14 - added Zelensky.
The war continues, human losses are colossal
Ukraine and Russia may have lost over a million people killed and wounded during the course of the war. Such data was recently provided by "The Wall Street Journal", citing a confidential assessment of data from the Ukrainian government and Western intelligence. At the same time, Ukraine's losses are estimated at 80,000 killed and 400,000 wounded. According to these estimates, Russia has lost up to 200,000 killed (estimates vary). The number of wounded is comparable to that of Ukrainians – also around 400,000. Sociologists add that Ukraine has lost millions more citizens due to the occupation of its territories and rapid emigration.
Estimates regarding losses are difficult to verify, as the data is treated as a state secret. According to information published by "The New York Times" in August 2024, the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed in action could be around 70,000 and the wounded estimated at 120,000. Pentagon experts cautioned that these figures are estimates and can vary widely depending on the source of analysis.
Why only estimates? Both Ukraine and Russia may present data in a way aligned with their own propaganda narratives, making it difficult to obtain exact numbers.
Controversy over desertion. Was it not a secret?
According to Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, it's not just about the numbers but also about the state of the army and the mood at the front. - Zelensky mentions the fallen. The casualties could have been avoided if not for the mistakes made during the famous failed offensive in autumn 2023. Those losses, sending thousands of people to prepared, mined Russian positions, marked the beginning of the army's crisis - indicates Gen. Skrzypczak.
The general commented on the matter of desertion among Ukrainians. According to "Financial Times", from January to October 2024, Ukrainian prosecutors initiated 60,000 cases against soldiers suspected of desertion, nearly double the number in the years 2022 and 2023 combined. - Escapes from training conducted in Poland were already an open secret. I heard reports that families would come for soldiers trained with us and take them to the Netherlands, etc., and they disappeared – says the military.
- Today Ukraine lacks volunteers, and consequently, the forces necessary to secure the entire front. Soldiers who fight see that the situation is becoming critical because there is no one to replace them. They have lost hope. This is heading in a bad direction. The Russian army hasn't made such progress for a long time as it has achieved in the last three months when they seized new territories in the eastern part of the country. There is no one to stop them this winter - summarizes Gen. Skrzypczak.
Ukrainians sound the alarm. Russia is preparing a new attack
"According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses," summarizes Emil Kastehelmi from the Finnish analyst group Black Bird Group.
He published maps on the X portal indicating that the main target of the Russian offensive this fall was the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove area. Currently, most changes on the frontline occur on a 145-kilometre stretch.
Ukrainians are increasingly warning of a Russian attack in a new direction - reports the Unian agency. It concerns the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russian troops are accumulating equipment and regrouping units. On December 1, the commander of the 3rd Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, Alexey Khilchenko, told journalists that this is a sign of preparations for a large-scale offensive in that region.
- The Russian army is preparing for a large-scale offensive in our direction – I mean Zaporizhzhia region. There is every sign of this and the Russians are conducting many different movement and preparation actions. Are we ready for their onslaught? I think we're ready – said the officer. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a Telegram post that Ukrainian forces are already defending in Zaporizhzhia, "achieving good results."
