Moldova's EU path secured by narrowest margin amid unrest

Late on Sunday night, the Kremlin had the right to celebrate what seemed like a great victory. Preliminary voting results from the referendum question, "Do you support the introduction of a change to the Constitution to join the Republic of Moldova with the European Union?" showed opposition from Moldovans. This was believed to be the result of Russia's efforts, including a campaign of disinformation, fake news, and corrupt vote-buying. However, when results from votes cast abroad began to come in (about one million pro-European citizens live in exile), they tipped the balance in favour of those supporting joining the EU.

"We have evidence and information that the goal of the criminal group was to purchase 300,000 votes. The scale of the fraud is unprecedented. The goal was to disrupt the functioning of democracy. Their aim was to instill fear and panic in society. We will not give up defending freedom and democracy," announced Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Monday.

This refers to the activities of Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, who is residing in Russia and who claimed that the president had suffered a defeat. "This is a rout. Moldovans have expressed their opinion. Sandu, did you hear? Neither your EU, nor you, nor your European owners are needed here... Everyone understands that you're now trying with all your might to steal the votes. We can already see the result. And you won't force anyone to believe otherwise," Shor stated in a recording published on social media. This occurred when, in the counted votes, integration skeptics were leading with 53% against 47%.

On Sunday, both presidential elections and a referendum were held in Moldova. The first round was won by the current President Maia Sandu, who received 42% support, while Alexandr Stoianoglo came in second with 26% support. Therefore, a second round will be organized.

The referendum decided on including a phrase about the European identity of the Republic of Moldova in the national constitution and declaring that "European integration is a strategic goal of the Republic of Moldova." Supporters of integration won at the last moment, in the final hours of vote counting. After counting 99.5% of the ballots, 50.4% voted in favour of the "yes" option.

Moldova began the long process of formal accession talks in June and, under the leadership of Sandu, intends to join the EU by 2030. Relations with Russia have deteriorated because the president condemned the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine and diversified energy supplies by moving away from Russia.

"The result of the referendum on EU integration should be seen as a surprise and also a disappointment. It was widely expected to achieve around 55-60% support. I believe this is the result of a mistake by President Maia Sandu's party. They wanted to boost her result in the presidential elections by introducing simultaneous voting on EU integration. Instead, the referendum result was weighed down by disappointment with her governance," comments Piotr Oleksy, an analyst at the Institute of Central Europe, for Wirtualna Polska. When we spoke, EU supporters had a 9,000-vote lead in the referendum.

"For citizens, the issue of joining the EU is more distant than the problems of high prices, unfulfilled promises of transformation, fighting oligarchy, and judicial reforms. Sandu ran with these slogans in the campaign before being elected. It aroused great expectations, but Moldovans have not felt in recent years that their lives have improved," Oleksy continues.

The analyst emphasizes that on Monday it is difficult to assess the scale of vote-buying and the impact of the Russian-directed disinformation campaign.

According to Oleksy, the Russian campaign relied on the involvement of some priests from the Russian Orthodox Church and the spread of false rumours, such as that the EU planned to open camps for immigrants in Moldova.

"Moldovans, disappointed with the pro-Western government, are increasingly susceptible to the Russian-oligarchic narrative. The political dynamics in Moldova could derail accession, which would be easier for the EU and less controversial than the tenfold larger, war-torn Ukraine," wrote Adam Eberhardt, a political scientist, an expert on Eastern European issues, and a former director of the Centre for Eastern Studies, on the X platform. He predicts that the parliamentary elections planned for July 2025 in Moldova are "the most important clash where a triumph for Russia is anticipated."

The most influential ally of the Kremlin in Moldova is considered to be oligarch Ilan Shor. Before the elections, he openly announced on social media that he would pay Moldovans to convince others to vote against the president. He had previously financed participants of anti-government demonstrations.

The 37-year-old Shor fled to Russia a few years ago when investigators linked him to the theft of the equivalent of one billion dollars from three Moldovan banks. In 2024, while in Russia, he declared himself the leader of the political movement "Victory," but was denied registration as a candidate.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented on the election results: "What we are seeing is a technically difficult-to-explain rise in votes supporting Sandu and a move towards the EU," said the Kremlin's press spokesperson. He argued that pro-EU views are "the ideology of President Sandu."

The most bizarre comments about the Moldovan elections were collected by journalists from the Ziarul de Garda service from residents of the pro-Russian Transnistrian region. "I voted for peace and against the EU because the United States started the war in Ukraine," "We must maintain good relations with Russia, as before" were among the statements made in a report about the elections. Despite this, 37% of voters supported the push for EU integration. Opponents confessed that their children work in EU countries, but they themselves "do not need any Union."