Life expectancy hits a ceiling: No more gains ahead, say experts

Immortality is not destined for us. The latest research results indicate that not only should we not dream of eternal life, but we can also forget about further significant increases in longevity. According to scientists, there is much to suggest that we have already reached the upper limit of average life expectancy. As a consolation, they add that predicting what the future will bring is difficult.

The portal fitbook.de points out that Germany's life expectancy has significantly increased over recent decades. Data from the Federal Statistical Office shows that 1871 the average life expectancy was only 36 years for men and 39 years for women. Today, the average life expectancy is 78 years for men and 83 years for women.

According to the Federal Statistical Office, the rapid increase in average life expectancy up to the mid-20th century is largely due to the decrease in infant mortality. Other important reasons include advances in medical care, hygiene, nutrition, living conditions, as well as improvements in working conditions and increased material well-being, as pointed out by fitbook.de

Following this reasoning, one might assume that the next 150 years could bring another doubling of average life expectancy or a considerable increase in the upper limit. Unfortunately, the latest scientific research indicates that this is an unlikely scenario. American scientists from the University of Illinois point out that although we are witnessing advances in medicine and genetics, we should not expect a significant increase in average life expectancy.

We need to accept the new reality that there is a limit to how long we can live – stated S. Jay Olshansky, commenting on his research results in the journal "Nature Aging".

To study the course of average life expectancy and its upper limit, American researchers used data from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research from 1990–2019. They focused on eight countries where people live the longest. These include Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.

The study also included data from Hong Kong and the USA, although the United States does not appear even in the list of 40 countries with the highest average life expectancy. Based on the analysis, scientists came to several conclusions. The first is that men will continue to live shorter lives than women.

Secondly, although expected life expectancy will continue to increase, it will do so at a much slower pace. Where does this conclusion come from? From 1990 to 2010, average life expectancy increased by about 2.5 years per decade. Since 2010, in countries with the highest average life expectancy, it has increased by only 1.5 years.

The third conclusion is that life expectancy has an upper limit, which cannot be shifted despite technological progress and medical advancements. - We're squeezing less and less life out of these life-extending technologies. And the reason is that aging gets in the way – adds S. Jay Olshansky, as quoted by fitbook.de.

Scientists add that considering current data, the upper limit of life span has almost been reached. However, they leave some room for possibilities, indicating that it is unknown "how advances in medicine (e.g., cancer therapies) and healthcare (especially in older age) will further extend life expectancy."