Lichtman's election prediction: Democratic win despite tight polls
A few days before the election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have very similar support in the polls. Meanwhile, Prof. Allan Lichtman, known in the USA as the "election Nostradamus," has no doubts: the Democratic candidate will win. He presents specific arguments to support this thesis.
Since 1984, Lichtman has never been wrong in his presidential forecasts. He predicted, among other things, Trump's victory in 2016, despite most polls at the time indicating a win for his rival, Hillary Clinton.
Lichtman claims that his accuracy is ensured by using the method he created, the "13 Keys to the White House." These are 13 criteria through which the expert assesses the strength of the ruling party.
Six of the 13 keys must be against the ruling party to predict its defeat, and at this moment, "That's four keys down," says Lichtman.
The keys against the ruling party include: a mandate based on results in the House of Representatives, the presidency issue, a foreign policy failure related to the situation in the Middle East, and a lack of charisma. "She's not reached the status of a Franklin Roosevelt," the professor notes, indicating that two more keys are needed to predict a defeat.
Election prophecies in the USA. "Junk science"
Experts are skeptical about Prof. Lichtman's method. "I think [it is] an example of kind of the replication crisis and kind of junk science," stated Nate Silver, an election data expert, in the "New York Post".
Meanwhile, Harris and Trump are neck and neck in the polls. On Tuesday, CNN released the results of a survey conducted in Nevada and Arizona, where early voting is already underway.
In Nevada, 52% of voters cast their votes for Trump, and 46% for Harris. In Arizona, Trump received 44%, and Harris 53%. CNN forecasts that the final results in these two states will be close to a tie.
The election in the United States will be held on Tuesday, November 5th.
