Iran's nuclear ambitions: New strategies amid regional decline
According to reports from the "New York Times", Iran has organized a group of scientists to investigate the feasibility of rapidly constructing an atomic bomb, potentially reducing its development time from years to months.
American intelligence assessments indicate that Iran has formed a team of scientists exploring the feasibility of quickly building an atomic bomb, as reported by the "New York Times" on Monday. It was noted that while the program has not yet been implemented, it could potentially reduce the time needed to build a bomb from years to months.
The Iranian authorities maintain that they are not pursuing a nuclear program for military purposes. However, in recent years, the country has significantly increased its production of enriched uranium. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran possesses approximately 200 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, enough to produce four to five atomic bombs. Further enrichment to the 90 percent level required for military use could take several days.
"But enriching the uranium to bomb grade is not enough for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon. Some Israeli estimates were even longer, upward of two years. The intelligence assessment warned that Iranian weapons engineers and scientists were essentially looking for a shortcut that would enable them to turn their growing stockpile of nuclear fuel into a workable weapon in a matter of months, rather than a year or more — but only if Tehran made a decision to change its current approach," wrote the New York newspaper.
One of the Iranian opposition exile organizations reported on Friday that Iran is working on a nuclear warhead project mounted on a missile with a range of up to 3,000 kilometres.
Is Iran weaker than ever?
According to the newspaper's sources, US intelligence obtained this information in the last months of Joe Biden's presidency, and the findings were also shared with Donald Trump's new administration. "Iran has never been weaker than it is today, in the view of American and Israeli officials. Hamas and Hezbollah, which it has funded and armed, have lost their leadership and their ability to strike Israel. Syria’s leader, Bashar al-Assad, has fled to Moscow and his country is no longer an easy route for Iranian weapon," assessed the "NYT".
The newspaper added that according to American and Israeli officials, Iran "has never been weaker" than it is now. In 2023-24, two Iran-backed groups, Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, waged war with Israel. Currently, uncertain ceasefires are in place on these fronts, but both organizations have been significantly weakened and have lost their position in the region. Tehran has thus lost the ability to intimidate Israel with attacks by these groups.
Iran also suffered significant losses in two direct Israeli retaliatory attacks in 2024. According to Israeli assessments, a substantial part of Iran's air defense was destroyed, and facilities including rocket fuel factories were damaged. The final blow was the fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, one of Iran's closest allies in the region, in December 2024.
The issue of Iran will certainly be one of the topics during Tuesday's conversation between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, noted the 'NYT'. Netanyahu has been close to ordering a preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities for years, but he has always ultimately refrained, often due to US pressure. "Mr. Trump has indicated that he is in no hurry to get into a direct conflict with Iran, and seems open to a negotiation. When asked just after the inauguration whether he would support an Israeli strike on the facilities, he said: 'Hopefully that can be worked out without having to worry about it. It would really be nice if that could be worked out without having to go that further step,'" the New York newspaper commented.
