Germany's political storm: CDU and AfD's controversial pact

In the first days of February, Germans took to the streets to protest against the informal agreement between the CDU and the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany). The agreement calls for permanent border controls and the deportation of migrants who have entered the country illegally. This topic has become a leading issue in the campaign ahead of the snap parliamentary elections (February 23).

On Wednesday, January 29, at the initiative of the CDU's chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, the Bundestag passed a resolution announcing the introduction of permanent controls at German state borders and turning away individuals without documents. This was made possible by the support of the previously isolated right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD). The Social Democrats from the SPD and the Greens considered this a "breaking of a taboo." Merz later explained that the gravity of the issue outweighed his discomfort with the AfD's support.

The AfD, led by 45-year-old Bundestag member Alice Weidel, has long built its support base on dissatisfaction with migration policy initiated by Angela Merkel's government. Weidel was recently bolstered—unanimously decided by the party, she will be the chancellor candidate. Ahead of the February elections, the party further strengthened its support—January polls gave it as much as 22%, currently making the AfD the second political force in Germany.

In the latest survey by the Forschungsgruppe Research Institute on January 30, support for the leading CDU fell below 30% for the first time in weeks. The AfD can count on 21% of the vote, clearly outdistancing Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats and the Greens.

Interestingly, the rise in support for the AfD is not seen as a result of far-right radicals turning towards the centre. "We are observing a shift towards radicalization," said Michał Kędzierski, an analyst on energy, climate, and transport policy in Germany at the Centre for Eastern Studies in a podcast. The party had a period in which it considered a course towards the centre. Their experience shows that radicalization brings them popularity. That's why they are now seeing support ranging from 20-22 percent.

In practice, the AfD remains politically isolated. In Germany, there is talk of a "cordon"—exclusion from any coalition. Due to the populist message, the AfD can't rely on the favour of major media, so its leaders primarily direct their campaign messages through social media.

According to Aleksandra Kozaczyńska, a specialist on Germany and Northern Europe at the Centre for Eastern Studies, AfD "rides the wave of uncertainty related to employment (especially among young people), lack of real wage growth, and rising living costs". "German companies are losing in international competitiveness, leading to plant closures and layoffs, and unfavourable demographic conditions force increases in contributions, especially health and pension," explains the expert in an interview with money.pl.

The AfD fights for the votes of Germans with primarily conservative and right-wing views, regardless of their social standing. They are rather Germans who are "historically" poorer, i.e., from regions that fared less favourably through German reunification and transformation of East Germany and subsequent globalization and EU expansion to the east. Saxony and Thuringia are examples," Kozaczyńska points out.

AFD denies the phenomenon of climate change, and thus the party's politicians propose abandoning the green transformation (including repealing fleet limits on CO2 emissions by new cars and supporting the production of combustion engine vehicles). "They blame it for reducing the international competitiveness of German automotive companies. They also propose a return to energy cooperation with Russia to provide low energy prices for businesses," summarizes the OSW expert.

According to the Centre for Eastern Studies, the AfD gains through radicalization of its message, which proves effective primarily on the issue of the migration crisis. "Moderating the narrative will not allow entry into the government coalition in the next term. The party's goal is to become the strongest opposition party in the future parliament with a range of effective tools to influence German politics, allowing the AfD to strengthen ahead of future elections, which it aims to win," reads a commentary on the OSW website.

The AfD is going into the elections not only with anti-immigrant slogans. The party emphasizes in its program that asylum seekers should not receive monetary benefits but material ones. It also advocates for the government to limit "citizens' benefits" for legally residing foreigners. "We will ensure that hundreds of thousands of able-bodied benefit recipients return to the labour market," the party stresses in its program.

Weidel's party questions the Green Deal and any laws implemented by Brussels in this direction, denying any climate change. "Bans on combustion engines and heating with oil and gas must be abolished. Unfortunately, the CDU is unable to do this," emphasizes the extreme German right. Weidel also announced that if the AfD comes to power, her government will "dismantle the wind turbines of shame," producing power from renewable energy sources and—in her opinion—marring the landscape.

The AfD is going to the elections with a promise to raise the tax-free amount to CAD 20,000. The party also calls for the abolition of the CO2 emissions tax and a reduction in energy taxes. "We will end the costly 'energy transition' and move away from the EU's 'climate policy.' To obtain cheap and reliable energy, Germany must return to nuclear energy and maintain coal-fired power plants," the party emphasizes. In a populist appeal, they point out that "only the AfD wants to end Germany's decline and start a new economic miracle."

The German right announces increased funding for the army, but without specifics. The AfD also supports the reinstatement of mandatory military service. It does not perceive NATO as a key security guarantor for the country.

Bartłomiej Chudy