France’s elections could ignite EU's next financial crisis

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, warned that "Europe is mortal," but shortly after, he led his country to early elections that could "plunge the entire EU into a deadly crisis," writes Gideon Rachman, the chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times.

A few days before the parliamentary elections in France, the far-right National Rally (RN), the former National Front of Marine Le Pen, is decidedly leading in the polls. In second place is the People's Front coalition, dominated by the radical left. In the best case, a parliament controlled by extreme parties could destabilize France for a long time, assesses the columnist.

In the worst-case scenario, it could lead to the adoption of an extravagant budget and a nationalist policy that would quickly lead to an economic and social crisis, which would very quickly become a problem for the entire EU. Rachman writes that France's fiscal problems and diplomatic problems are the first mechanisms that would lead to a crisis in the EU.

France is in serious financial trouble; public debt is 110% of GDP, and the budget deficit reached 5.5% last year. Meanwhile, the author explains that both the far right and the radical left have committed in their election campaigns to significantly increase spending and cut taxes, which will increase the national debt and deficit while breaking EU rules.

French Finance and Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire recently warned that extreme political groups' economic program threatens a severe financial crisis that could lead to France being overseen by the International Monetary Fund - Rachman reminds.

When Greece fell into a debt crisis, the humbling lesson that led it to approve the remedial measures imposed by the EU was the risk of being kicked out of the eurozone. However, attempting to discipline France in a similar way would be unthinkable: after all, since the 1950s, the entire Community project has been built around the French-German tandem, the commentator reminds us.

Thus, France will remain in the monetary union but will be a source of its problems, which could have a disastrous impact on the cohesion and stability of the eurozone in times when the Union must close ranks due to the threat from Russia—warns the author.

Worse still, if the National Rally comes to power, its first reaction could be a confrontation with Brussels "in the name of French sovereignty," which could trigger even more belligerent and nationalist sentiments - the columnist continues.

The first round of French parliamentary elections will take place on June 30, and the second round will take place on July 7.