FiveThirtyEight forecasts narrow Biden advantage amid tumultuous campaign
17 July 2024 16:54
The FiveThirtyEight platform's forecast for the White House race predicts a tie leaning towards Biden. After recent events, the fate of the presidential candidates in the USA hangs in the balance. Just over the weekend, there was an attack on Donald Trump, and Joe Biden previously made a series of blunders.
The platform, which analyzes polls, political, and economic topics from the United States, presents the latest predictions regarding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections.
"The FiveThirtyEight forecast predicts a tie in the race for the White House leaning towards... Biden," writes Kamil Marcinkiewicz on platform X. "In 53 percent of simulations, Biden wins; in 46 percent, Trump. There are no signs of Trump’s rise seen by half of the Polish internet. We still need to wait for the traditional convention bounce effect," adds the political scientist and data analyst.
Republican convention: Donald Trump as candidate
On Monday, the Republican National Convention began, at which Donald Trump was formally chosen as the Republican candidate for the U.S. presidency.
A day after he became the target of an attempted assassination, Donald Trump arrived in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Sunday for the convention. Trump's campaign had already confirmed that the Republican National Convention would proceed as planned.
The attack occurred on Saturday—at that time, Trump was shot in the ear during a campaign rally in Butler. Two people died, including the attacker, and two others were seriously injured.
On Monday, Trump appeared publicly for the first time since the Saturday attack, sitting in the audience with a bandaged ear.
Joe Biden's series of blunders
In the most recent polls, Joe Biden was trailing Donald Trump. He was not helped by a series of blunders, including mistakenly calling Volodymyr Zelensky the president of Putin and Kamala Harris—Donald Trump.
His performance during the debate with Donald Trump was also unsuccessful. Since then, even more people have begun questioning his chances of winning. However, the forecast presented by FiveThirtyEight seems to contradict this.
