Europe's missile dilemma: A race to counter Russian threats
In recent weeks, there has been much information about missile systems, both those that pose a threat to Europe and those meant to defend it. Europe cannot remain powerless, which is why many countries, including Poland, are advocating for the reinstallation of formerly abandoned weaponry.
The Russian medium-range (MRBM) or intermediate-range (IRBM – its range is supposed to be exactly on the conventional boundary) missile Oresznik hit overnight on November 20 to 21 a likely abandoned ballistic missile factory in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. This was an attempted Russian response to the U.S. allowing the use of ATACMS aerobalistic missiles, supplied to Ukraine, against targets in Russian territory, at least within a limited geographical area.
A torrent of events following the Russian attack
These events led to a near avalanche-like acceleration of subsequent incidents: Ukrainians began attacks on targets in Russia, destroying, among other targets, the modern Russian S-400 air defence systems (likely using older, shorter-range ATACMS) or an unspecified target. The Russians retaliated by launching – according to Vladimir Putin – about 100 various missiles against Ukrainian targets.
The Russian president went further, again threatening with the Oresznik – an attack with several missiles would be "similar to a nuclear attack", which may suggest that the Russians are not actually intending to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, possibly fearing the consequences. Nevertheless, Russia has nuclear weapons, as well as the hard-to-intercept Oresznik, cruise missiles and Iskanders. Europe does not want to remain passive in the face of this threat.
Current capabilities
Currently, Europe's capabilities for strikes over distances above 300 kilometres are quite modest. The most important system is the French NCM missile and the Franco-British Storm Shadow, closely related to the NCM. However, the former is a naval missile, part of the armament of FREMM-type missile frigates and nuclear-powered Suffren-type submarines. Thus, the number of missiles that can be launched simultaneously is limited.
The missile is expected to have a range of up to 1,400 kilometres and carry a warhead weighing 250 kilograms (according to some sources, even 300 kilograms). Despite lacking a nuclear warhead, it is considered by Paris as a strategic weapon. Similarly, the Storm Shadow missile (known in France as SCALP-EG) – is, however, an air missile fired in Ukraine from Su-24 bombers adapted for this purpose. The missile has a heavier warhead (450 kilograms) but a shorter range (550 kilometres), and stealth technology is designed to facilitate its secret operations.
The French air force also possesses the truly strategic ASMP-A missile. It is one element of France's nuclear deterrence capability (alongside the M51 family of naval ballistic missiles). With a range of about 500 kilometres and reaching (approximately) three times the speed of sound, the ASMP-A aims to bring devastation to France's and its allies' enemies. It is carried by appropriately adapted multirole Rafale aircraft, whose pilots regularly train for strategic strikes.
During one of the exercises in the Durandal Operation series in May this year, a successful test of the latest ASMPA-R variant (with a range of about 1,000 kilometres) was conducted. After 2035, it will be replaced by the ASN4G with greater range and speed. Additionally, there is the German Taurus KEPT-350 missile, recently known mainly for Berlin's refusal to supply it to Ukraine. This hard-to-detect air missile, weighing 1,400 kilograms (including a 480-kilogram warhead), has a range above 500 kilometres and was designed to destroy bunkers and other "hard" targets, thanks to the powerful MEPHISTO warhead. A common feature of the mentioned missiles is their limited numbers.
The situation looks worse for ballistic missiles
The situation is even worse when it comes to ballistic missiles. Aside from the American ATACMS (and recently the South Korean CTM-290) with limited range (as well as the French and British SLBM), Europe has none at all.
Ukraine was closest to bringing them into service, where the Luch Design Bureau developed a promising Grom-2/Sapsan ballistic missile, with a range of up to 500 kilometres (or 300 kilometres in the export version). The 500-kilogram warhead was supposed to provide adequate destructive power, but the Russian invasion has prevented, or at least significantly hindered, the start of serial production.
Poland is also working on technologies related to ballistic missiles, though these are likely of shorter range. The most significant achievements belong to a consortium consisting of: Wojskowe Zakłady Lotnicze No. 1 S.A., the Military Institute of Armament Technology, and the Special Production Facility "Gamrat" Sp. z o.o. They developed successful engines with diameters of 30 centimetres and 60 centimetres, which could power rocket missiles – however, funds for their development are lacking.
ELSA brings hope
The ELSA program offers hope for overcoming incapacity and creating European medium-range strike means. The initiative, launched during the July NATO summit, aims to develop systems capable of striking deep into the enemy's rear, providing European armies with a tool that could serve as a deterrent of almost strategic significance.
The short-term solution will likely be the MBDA LCM missile, a land variant of the NCM missile, featuring only cosmetic changes. It requires the development of a land-based launcher and an entire "system" related to target designation, missile transportation, safe launching, logistics, and more. New missiles will be developed in the future. The program involves France (the natural leader), Italy, Germany, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.
Britain and France (recently with Italy's participation) are also jointly developing a successor to Storm Shadow missiles, as well as Exocet and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Under the program running since 2017, FC/ASW (Future Cruise/Anti-Ship Weapon) will result in two different missiles.
The first, temporarily designated TP15, is intended to be a hard-to-detect subsonic missile for destroying ground targets (though retaining the ability to attack moving ships). A prototype of the missile has already been produced, and it is known to be 5 metres long.
The second missile, RJ10, is to have a ramjet engine. It is supposed to achieve high supersonic speeds and will mainly serve to attack maritime targets, but also to destroy enemy air defences. Its propulsion system has already been tested. Both missiles will be available in both ship and aircraft versions.
Meanwhile, Germany is working with Norway on the 3SM (SuperSonic Strike Missile) Tyrfing missile. It is intended to complement subsequent variants of the NSM missile (also used by our Navy), surpassing it in both range (800-1,000 kilometres) and speed (2-3 times the speed of sound). It is primarily intended for Type 212CD submarines.
The latest development is a French project for a ballistic missile with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometres, classifying it as an MRBM. This is interpreted as a French response to Oresznik's combat test. Currently, there are only analyses in this direction, but the French industry has the necessary know-how to develop such a missile. It is therefore difficult to say if the program will start, and if so, whether it will be included in the ELSA European project and made available to allies. If a nuclear warhead for it were developed, the consequence would be France's return to the highly elite club of countries with a true nuclear triad.
Or maybe drones?
All the systems mentioned above are relatively expensive weapons. Even with the currently high defence spending, their availability will be limited. So why not complement these advanced future capabilities with a more budget-friendly solution? At MSPO 2024, the Polish company WB Group presented the latest, heaviest member of the Warmate family: the Warmate 50.
It is essentially a light cruise missile with a combustion engine. It can carry a 50-kilogram warhead at a distance of about 1,000 kilometres. Not every target behind enemy lines requires a heavy warhead weighing 200-500 kilograms. Therefore, the Warmate 50 could be seen as a potential mass, cost-effective, yet effective complement to the expensive and more capable but less accessible missiles.
