End of Netanyahu's political career amid Israel's conflicts?

The war in the Gaza Strip has been ongoing for over six months, and there is no end in sight. Hamas has been weakened but not defeated. Meanwhile, the spectre of a broader regional confrontation with Iran continues to loom over Israel. The situation within Israel is also not encouraging.

Polls indicate that the opposition would take power if early elections were held in Israel. The lack of military successes in the Gaza Strip and internal problems are just the tip of the iceberg. Israel is going through a severe image crisis and is increasingly criticized internationally.

Israel’s relations with its closest ally, America, are even more in crisis. Is this the end of Benjamin Netanyahu's political career, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel?

The fighting in the Gaza Strip has been ongoing for over six months. The Israeli army, however, has not achieved a decisive victory. Hamas still has about 14,000 fighters under arms. On Tuesday morning, the Israeli military announced it had taken operational control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing. Israel considers this to be the last stronghold of Hamas, where leaders of the organization are hiding and likely where the remaining hostages are being held.

However, Hamas cells still operate even in those areas that have theoretically been "pacified" by the Israeli military. Hamas has survived mainly thanks to an extensive network of tunnels under the Gaza Strip. Before the war, it was estimated that the length of the network was about 350 kilometres. Now, the Israeli military is talking about approximately 700 kilometres. To understand the scale of this system, it's enough to state that the Gaza Strip covers an area of about 365 square kilometres.

The lack of major military successes for Israel in the Gaza Strip is just one side of the coin. It is important to remember that many Israeli hostages are still being held by Hamas, which is a serious political problem for Prime Minister Netanyahu's government.

Prime Minister Netanyahu claims that only Rafah stands between Israel and a complete victory. According to the prime minister, it is there that most of Hamas's high-ranking military commanders are located. However, not everyone shares the prime minister's optimism.

Some commentators believe that the offensive on Rafah will not bring Israel a definitive victory, and fights over the Gaza Strip will continue. They point out that in Rafah - like in other sectors - a situation may arise where Hamas could conduct a tactical retreat. When the Israeli military withdrew from Rafah, Hamas would return to the city.

The controversy over taking Rafah is not only a strictly military dispute but also a political one. More than a million Palestinian civilians live in the area - mainly refugees from other parts of the Gaza Strip.

The US administration fears that the operation to take the city will lead to a huge number of civilian casualties and, therefore, has been trying for months to dissuade Netanyahu from launching an offensive on the city. The dispute around Rafah is just a part of a broader problem - the escalating crisis between Israel and America.

The administration of President Joe Biden is increasingly frustrated with the stance of Prime Minister Netanyahu, who - according to Americans - sabotages peace initiatives undertaken by Washington. The Americans showed their discontent with Netanyahu's policies at the end of March when they did not veto a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip (though they had blocked similar resolutions several times in previous months). In mid-April, there was news that the State Department was considering imposing sanctions on one of the Israeli army's battalions (for human rights violations).

A portion of Israeli politicians is trying to present the "dispute with the US" as a dispute solely with the current administration of President Biden. However, this does not reflect the actual situation. Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip have led to a decline in pro-Israeli sentiments throughout American society - especially among young Americans. According to Gallup polls, while in 2023, as many as 64% of Americans aged 18-34 declared a favourable opinion of Israel, by February 2024, only 38% of respondents felt this way.

The crisis in US-Israeli relations is part of a more comprehensive image crisis for Israel. Controversial methods of warfare used by Israel in the Gaza Strip and the high number of civilian casualties have caused a wave of criticism against Israel internationally, and South Africa has even initiated proceedings before the International Criminal Court, accusing Israel of committing genocide in the Gaza Strip. The fact that the ICC allowed South Africa's petition in this case was seen in Israel as a severe diplomatic defeat.

The lack of military successes in the Gaza Strip, the image crisis, and the dispute with America are just the tip of the iceberg. Israel is going through a period of serious internal problems.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is considered one of the main culprits for the Hamas attack on October 7, in which over 1100 people were killed. As many as 71% of Israelis want the prime minister's resignation, and polls indicate that early elections would result in the opposition taking power.

Beni Gantz, whose party is leading in the polls, has suggested organizing early elections, but Netanyahu has refused. If the elections were to take place now, it would likely mean the end of his political career.

Netanyahu seems to hope to remain prime minister until the end of the current Knesset term (October 2026). He hopes that by then, he will have rebuilt public trust. However, even if the prime minister does not agree to early elections, he cannot be sure whether his ruling coalition will collapse.

There are considerable disputes in the government, both around the goals of Israel in the Gaza Strip and the future of the Palestinian enclave. Some of Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners have proposed, among other things, the idea of establishing Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip. In recent weeks, there has also been a dispute in the government concerning the conscription of Orthodox Jews into the military.

In March, the Supreme Court upheld its earlier ruling, stating that the current law (de facto exempting Orthodox Jews from military service) is discriminatory and must be changed. Moreover, the court blocked public funding of Talmudic schools—where draft-age men study—until a new conscription law was adopted. Netanyahu is looking for a compromise, but his orthodox coalition partners are not giving him room to maneuver. They want to maintain the current exemption from military service and demand unlocking funds designated for Talmudic schools.

But that's not the end of reasons that rob Prime Minister Netanyahu of sleep. There is still a possibility that the war with Hamas "spills over" beyond the Gaza Strip and leads to a broader regional war, in which Israel would have to face Iran and the so-called Axis of Resistance (a network of militias supported by Iran). There is an exceptionally high risk of escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border, where there have been clashes with Hezbollah for months.

The experiences of the last few weeks (Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus and the Iranian retaliatory strike on Israel) show that The prospect of a broader Israeli-Iranian conflict is a real threat, not just a theoretical scenario.

Netanyahu is the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history. He has spent over 16 years in the country's highest office. In his homeland, as well as internationally, he provokes extreme opinions. Despite many flaws, his immense political talent, which has allowed him to stay at the top of Israeli politics for so long, cannot be denied.

However, the current crisis could "sink" even someone as "unsinkable" as Netanyahu.