Climate change to blame for soaring turbulence incidents
Passengers on a May 26 flight from Doha to Dublin experienced moments of terror. As a result of severe turbulence, 12 people were injured, and seven were hospitalized. Scientists do not have good news for us in this regard. The climate crisis will affect not only the frequency but also the intensity of turbulence.
Recently, there have been two severe turbulence instances where passengers and crew were injured. Last Tuesday, a Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore encountered severe turbulence, resulting in the death of one passenger and injuries to at least 71 people on board. On Sunday, May 26, an Etihad flight from Doha to Dublin encountered severe turbulence over Turkey.
Scientists agree that we must prepare for more frequent occurrences of such events. Researchers point out that not only will the intensity of turbulence increase, but also its frequency. The culprit is climate change.
Scientists reached these conclusions as early as 2017. In the journal "Advances in Atmospheric Sciences," an article was published in which scientists conducted climate model simulations to examine clear-air turbulence over transatlantic routes.
They predict that increasing carbon dioxide levels may elevate the turbulence risk. In the case of weak turbulence, it is estimated that they will increase by about 59 percent and moderate turbulence by about 4 percent. In contrast, in the case of the most robust turbulence, the increase could reach even 127 percent.
The latest research confirms these troubling forecasts. The journal Geophysical Research Letters analyzed turbulence cases from 1979 to 2020. The data indicate that severe turbulence incidents have increased in moderate latitudes, where air traffic is most intense.
Climate change exacerbates turbulence. There is another problem
Increased carbon dioxide levels and the resulting higher air temperature lead to changes in air currents, making the skies increasingly "bumpy."
Scientists also point out that a significant turbulence-related problem is the increasing difficulty in predicting it. "Rzeczpospolita," citing data from the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board, notes that from 2009 to 2018, one in three turbulence incidents was not signalled to the crew in advance.
Particularly difficult to predict are CAT (Clear Air Turbulence) incidents, which occur in clear air. Their observation is challenging due to the lack of clouds, which would allow for the observation of air mass movements. The absence of clouds also means that radar signals have nothing to bounce off, making the detection of turbulence by this method impossible.
