China's rapid nuclear expansion outpaces outdated U.S. arsenal

China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. For decades, Beijing maintained a relatively stable potential – dozens of land-based missiles with nuclear warheads located in fixed silos and a few mobile launchers.

Even this modest arsenal was partially reduced in the 1990s, but recent years have seen China quickly catch up with the United States and Russia.

In just a few years, China has built about 300 silos for intercontinental missiles. Missile silo fields have been established in China's deserts at a minimum of three locations (Hami, Yumen, and Hanggin Qi silo fields, as well as the Jilantai training center), and satellite images show the scale of Beijing's armaments.

The scale of construction is visible from space – the images reveal not only the locations of the bases but also the rapid pace at which new installations are being constructed.

Although popular culture has solidified the image of missile bases where silos are located next to each other, in reality, they are spaced hundreds of yards or even miles apart. This is intended to make it difficult to destroy the entire base with one nuclear warhead.

Moreover, not all silos must contain missiles, as some may have been built as decoys. It is also worth noting that with China's grandeur does not always come quality – as it turns out, some of the newly built silos are unfit for use due to various defects.

There are growing doubts about the – revealed by Bloomberg – an alleged scandal in which rocket fuel in the Chinese rocket forces was replaced with water. Although these reports were repeated by media worldwide, some experts believe it was deliberate disinformation from Beijing to obscure the real reasons for purges in the army and administration.

The scale of the expansion of China's nuclear triad, especially its land-based component, has caused concern in the United States – according to a Pentagon report submitted to Congress, the number of Chinese launchers now exceeds the number of American launchers. The Pentagon has about 450 silos, with 400 in combat readiness.

The American problem in this case boils down not to the number, but to the contents of the silos – they contain Minuteman III missiles, which were commissioned more than half a century ago. The American nuclear arsenal is still vast, but it is also a sort of technical museum.

This is a result of a series of decisions that led to the decommissioning of modern LGM-118A Peacekeeper missiles in 2005. As a result, while Russia is intensely modernizing its strategic rocket forces and China is expanding them, the United States remains with half-century-old missiles.

Attempts to improve the situation are ongoing with the development of the new LGM-35A Sentinel missile, but in an optimistic scenario, it will not reach operational readiness before 2030.

Meanwhile, Beijing, which possesses a complete nuclear triad (land-based, sea-based, and air-based delivery systems), is also developing its naval component. Currently, China operates Type 094 submarines as carriers of ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. The original armament of these submarines – JL-2 missiles – did not allow for attacks on the USA from Chinese territorial waters.

To carry out an attack, the submarines had to sail far to the east, which provided an opportunity for detection and destruction. Currently, Americans no longer have that capability. In recent years, Beijing has rearmed its boomers with JL-3 missiles, which have a range of 10,000 km (6,214 miles), allowing for attacks on the United States from its waters without exposing precious submarines to risk.

Moreover, China has already developed a successor to the Type 094 submarines—the Type 096, which will likely be slightly larger, certainly better silenced, and built according to stealth requirements. Satellite images show that construction of at least one new type of submarine has already begun. The probable commissioning of new units is estimated for the end of this decade.