Russia's plan for Ukraine: A vision of three partitions
According to information from the Interfax-Ukraine agency, the Russian Ministry of Defense has devised a plan to dissolve Ukraine's statehood by dividing its territory into three separate parts. This proposal may be presented to the new United States administration.
The agency, citing sources within the Ukrainian special services, reports on a Kremlin document forecasting the military and political situation globally until 2045. This plan envisions the partition of Ukraine, potentially leading to the loss of its current sovereignty.
Ukraine divided into "three separate parts"
The first part would consist of an area called "new regions of Russia," formed after Moscow's annexation of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, as well as Crimea and Sevastopol. Russian military efforts are currently concentrated on consolidating control over these areas.
The second part would be a "pro-Russian state formation" with pro-Russian authorities, including the regions of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, and the city of Kyiv. According to Moscow's plan, this state would reject integration with the European Union and NATO, permitting Russian military presence on its territory.
The third part consists of "disputed territories" in western Ukraine, covering the Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Zakarpattia regions. The Kremlin believes the future of these areas should be decided by Russia in collaboration with neighbouring countries like Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
Russia considers four scenarios
Russia is also contemplating four scenarios for the evolution of the international situation. The scenarios of "US and Western dominance" and "China achieving the status of a leading world power" are deemed unfavourable and could occur if there is a loss or freezing of the conflict with Ukraine.
On the other hand, the scenarios of "shaping a multipolar world and the division of spheres of influence by leading actors" and "regionalization/chaotization" assume Russia's victory over Ukraine and the unfolding of the situation under terms favourable to the Kremlin.
It's possible that Moscow will attempt to present this plan to the new authorities in Washington through the governments and representatives of third-party states.
