China's quiet nod: Pyongyang's troops bolster Putin in Ukraine

The rapprochement between Russia, North Korea, and China occurred against the backdrop of the invasion of Ukraine. According to U.S. and South Korean intelligence services, the regime in Pyongyang supplied millions of shells to Moscow and, in October, transported at least 3,000 troops to Russia.

Meanwhile, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin declared a "no limits" friendship between their countries three weeks before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, China declared a neutral stance on this war and claims it does not send lethal aid to any side of the conflict. Simultaneously, it has not condemned the Russian invasion and opposes sanctions imposed on Moscow.

- It is widely believed that the troop deployment is taking place despite Beijing's opposition, Atkinson, an expert in East Asian international relations, noted. According to this theory, it should be assumed that Xi "fears that the transfer of troops will strengthen the perception of a new 'axis of evil' and provoke a stronger reaction from the U.S. and its European and Asian allies, and that Russia is diminishing Beijing's influence over North Korea and allowing it to act more boldly while Beijing wants to control it."

However, in his opinion, such an assumption is based on a misinterpretation of power dynamics and a poor understanding of the leaders' intentions.

- Most observers agree that without Chinese support, Putin's war efforts would collapse, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) would fall as a country. Beijing is the dominant partner in this triangle, the PAP interlocutor noted.

The current liberal world order is not a safe environment for any of these three regimes. Priority number one for Xi is to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union. He has stated this clearly. It is an extremely ambitious goal, Atkinson argues.

As he added, "you can't make an omelette without breaking eggs, and making the world safe for autocracy is not a picnic." - This references a phrase popularized by pro-Stalin journalist Walter Duranty (some attribute these words to Stalin or Lenin himself) and an aphorism by Mao Zedong from 1927, who wrote that "a revolution is not a dinner party; it is an act of violence whereby one class overthrows another" - he reminds.

Atkinson admits that the authorities in Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang may not agree on the chosen tactics and timing of its implementation. - What matters is that their fundamental goals are aligned. And even if tactics and timing are concerned, the only regime that has the means and economic power to confront the West cannot be without veto rights. I therefore think it is highly probable that when Putin and Kim decided on the deployment of North Korean troops, they approached Beijing for approval and received it, he pointed out.

- In other words, Xi himself sat down and discussed this with his most trusted people and decided that, all things considered, it is better to allow it than not, he concluded.

Do China have any influence on Russia regarding the war, and would the decision to send North Korean troops, if made without the knowledge of Chinese authorities, cause dissatisfaction in Beijing? - Ultimately, the purpose of these actions is what matters to the PRC as well - Atkinson notes.

We must remember why Putin wants North Korean troops: to help him not lose in Ukraine. Xi may not like the way he wants to achieve this goal, but he shares it, Atkinson explains.

As he added, it cannot be ruled out that the PRC came forth with its proposal, but Moscow and Pyongyang's preparations were already advanced. - Considering that Xi does not want Putin to lose, he has no choice but to agree with them and hope that their plan works - the expert concluded.

He also points out that positioning communist China as a so-called good cop not only helps them but also serves the interests of Russia and North Korea.

- European governments, instead of taking action against Russia or punishing the DPRK and the PRC, engage in dialogue with Beijing, expecting dissatisfied China to appeal for the withdrawal of North Korean troops - notes the PAP interlocutor.

- The problem, of course, is that deploying these troops tilts the scales of the war even more against Ukraine and ultimately all of Europe, and waiting on Beijing only delays the West's effective response - Atkinson noted.

In his opinion, Pyongyang’s support for Moscow could have security consequences not only in Europe but also in East Asia.

The transfer of 12,000 soldiers during a time when Putin wants to avoid another mobilization among Russians is "very valuable" to the Kremlin, and Pyongyang "almost certainly will receive something of comparable value" in return - this could be, for example, missile, nuclear, submarine, or satellite technology. - Putin won't give more than he has to, but he has to give a lot. And Pyongyang will appreciate all of it - Atkinson emphasizes.

However, Russia would not provide North Korea with direct military assistance if armed conflict broke out on the Korean Peninsula. According to the expert, Russia and China would not want North Korea to lose such a potential war, but the invasion of Ukraine currently consumes all of Moscow's efforts.

However, thanks to technological support, North Korea’s nuclear threats against Washington or Seoul "become somewhat more credible, allowing North Korea to engage in provocations," even if its actual combat capability has decreased due to supporting the Kremlin.

The expert acknowledges that in the current geopolitical context, Xi is cautious about a potential invasion of Taiwan. However, if he decides that the time for it has come, Russia and North Korea will support Beijing because its defeat "would be a devastating strategic failure for all three." Russia, on its part, would support Beijing "just below the threshold of engaging in warfare, but for North Korea, this might (be a good moment to) start an invasion of South Korea" - he assessed.

- Importantly, these joint actions will not just result from these countries having converging strategic interests with Beijing or owing China for received support - Atkinson emphasized.

- If Russia loses in Ukraine, it will be 'swept off the board.' But if it wins, it will be ready to checkmate Europe, effectively forcing the U.S. to maintain its forces in Europe while at the same time supplying Beijing with food, oil, and raw materials," - the expert outlined. "Meanwhile, North Korea, armed with nuclear missiles developed with Russian technological assistance, would be a formidable adversary for South Korea, Japan, and the U.S., should it simultaneously engage in war with China over Taiwan - Atkinson assessed.