AUKUS shifts power dynamics as Pacific tensions rise

The French administration referred to plans for cooperation with Australia regarding Canberra's acquisition of 12 to 16 new submarines as a "50-year marriage." These submarines were meant to replace the 12 conventional Collins-class submarines.

A project with a budget of about 42 billion dollars envisioned the delivery by the French Naval Group of new vessels to the Australian navy, built with the involvement of Australian industry and based on the French Suffren/Barracuda class.

Submarines of this type—nuclear-powered and equipped with long-range cruise missiles MdCN—are intended to be the strike pillar of the French submarine fleet. The Netherlands also chose them (as the Orka type) in the variant with conventional propulsion.

Australia also ordered them as the Shortfin Barracuda type. However, in September 2021, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison unexpectedly announced the cancellation of the contract with France and the establishment of the global AUKUS agreement.

The goal of the agreement, made by Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, was initially to deliver new submarines to Australia, constructed with contributions from American, British, and Australian industries.

This decision provoked angry reactions from France and cost Canberra approximately 555 million euros in compensation, which Australia agreed to pay to the would-be strategic partner. In return, its navy is expected to receive the final AUKUS-type units alongside transitional American Virginia-class nuclear submarines by the end of the 2030s. What is known about them?

SSN-AUKUS (also known as SSN-A) are new-generation nuclear-powered attack submarines. Their design is expected to incorporate innovations in the currently produced American Virginia-class submarines.

The primary mission of the SSN-A units is countering enemy submarines, although, thanks to cruise missiles, they will also be capable of attacking land targets. The displacement of the new units is estimated at a minimum of 9,000 tonnes, and the hull length is 111 metres. The submarines are expected to be able to reach depths of up to 914 metres. An important feature is their high resistance to corrosion, which allows for up to 25 years of service without the risk of occurrence.

A key advantage is the propulsion, which has a service life estimated at 42 years (practically without fuel replacement). This enables rapid underwater movement over distances of thousands of nautical miles, which is unattainable for conventionally powered units. This feature means that the Australian navy gains new operational capabilities, including challenging the Chinese fleet far from its home ports.

The SSN-A type units are also expected to be acquired by the British Navy, where they will replace the currently operated Astute-class submarines.

The AUKUS agreement, which began with collaboration on submarines, was later expanded to include new-generation PrSM ballistic missiles (initially meant to complement and later replace MGM-140 ATACMS) and stealthy drones.

It’s worth noting that while AUKUS introduces a new quality in ally relations, it confirms the long-existing state of affairs. Australia and New Zealand (which limited cooperation with the USA in the 1980s) are members of the Pacific equivalent of NATO—the ANZUS defence alliance.

The establishment of AUKUS is often commented on as confirmation of the American "pivot to the Pacific," which, driven by China's aspirations, has become a key arena in the global influence struggle for the USA.

This isn’t entirely precise, as Washington. However, during the Cold War, Europe was considered the primary area of potential conflict with the Soviets, and it never turned away from or abandoned the Pacific.

In the American perception, the Pacific islands were the scene of the bloodiest battles of World War II. The historic rivalry between the USA and USSR, "cold" in nature for Europe, often turned into a "hot" war over the Pacific, with significant – as in Korea or Vietnam – involvement from the United States and its allies (Australia and New Zealand sent their contingents to Vietnam as part of ANZUS support).

The shift of global rivalry's focal point to the Pacific is visible in the changes occurring in the US armed forces. The Pentagon is strengthening American bases in the Pacific, like Guam, by building early warning stations protected by anti-ballistic and anti-aircraft "umbrellas."

The Navy is also evolving from – as previously – supporting inland operations to a force capable of conducting large naval operations. The USA is expanding its fleet of modern Navajo-class rescue ships, capable of assisting large, damaged vessels at sea. Fast Cody-class hospital catamarans are being developed, and large America-class amphibious ships are being tested as light aircraft carriers.

The USA is also establishing floating logistics bases for the fleet. It uses modified Alaska-class tanker hulls to build large (233 metres long, 72,575 tonnes displacement) floating bases. Lewis B. Puller-class units are designed to transport large quantities of fuel, ammunition, and all necessary supplies for fleet operations far from home ports. They are also equipped with a flight deck and adapted to support heavy helicopters.

A significant change, confirming political declarations, is also the direction of modernization in the Marine Corps. The Marines, who during World War II bore the brunt of battles on Pacific islands against the Japanese, lost their unique role by the early 21st century.

During the War on Terror, Marine units conducted operations in deserts and mountains, becoming similar in equipment and combat style to mechanized infantry. The return to the sea roots of the formation happened relatively recently, with the proposals made by Robert Gates, Secretary of Defence under George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

The Marines began shifting away from the previous practice of operating based on a few large amphibious ships and toward more numerous, smaller units. Moreover, the Corps' combat rules were changed, aiming to engage the enemy not—as before—after landing on an attacked shore but much earlier during the approach.

Due to these changes, the American Marine Corps's ongoing rearmament process includes modern equipment that is in accordance with the new assumptions.

Additional HIMARS launchers enhance rocket capabilities at the expense of tube artillery. Old AAV7 amphibious vehicles are replaced by modern ACVs, and heavy M1A1 Abrams tanks, less useful on beaches and Pacific islands, have been completely phased out of the Corps. Poland benefited from this by acquiring M1A1 FEP tanks, which were stored and available after the decommissioning of Marine armour units.