Asteroid YR4: Vigilance in face of distant threat
Scientists are closely monitoring asteroid YR4. While the threat of it hitting Earth is minimal, researchers prefer to remain cautious. A simulation has been created to illustrate the effects of a potential cosmic catastrophe.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. The object measures between 130 and 330 feet in length. Currently, it is moving away from Earth at a speed of about 13.27 kilometres per second. However, scientists estimate there is a possibility that YR4 could collide with Earth. This potential collision might happen in one of the six chances between the years 2032 and 2071 when the asteroid will be flying close to our planet. Fortunately, the risk for 2032 is only 1.2 percent. Despite this, procedures related to monitoring the asteroid have been initiated.
However, it's important to know what a potential collision would mean for Earth. Álvaro Gracia Montoya from MetaBallStudios created a simulation depicting the effects of YR4 hitting our planet. It demonstrates that if the asteroid were to hit a city, the city would be wiped off the face of the earth. Nonetheless, this is a highly unlikely scenario, as urban areas still compose a small fraction of the planet. It is estimated that even if a collision were to occur, the asteroid would strike a belt of the planet stretching from South America through the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa.
There are, however, ways to act if the doomsday scenario becomes reality. One method is deflection, which involves altering the asteroid's flight path using a rocket or probe. A NASA mission named the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in 2022 successfully achieved this. In that mission, a spacecraft was deliberately crashed into the asteroid Dimorphos. Thus, we are not entirely defenseless against such threats.
