American intelligence debates green light for Ukraine's deep strikes
The "New York Times," citing its sources, reports that American intelligence believes granting Ukraine permission to use long-range missiles to target sites deep within Russia would provoke a significant reaction from Moscow. We explain exactly which weapons are involved.
As part of Western support, Ukraine has received three types of long-range weapons. These include American ATACMS ballistic missiles and Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles supplied by the United Kingdom and France, respectively. All have been used to attack Russian targets, but only on territory occupied by Russia in Ukraine. Using them to hit targets within Russia requires additional approval from the United States, which President Joe Biden's administration has not granted.
USA reluctant to grant permission for attacks deep within Russia
Analysts emphasize the potential risks and uncertain benefits of such a significant decision. They note that the Ukrainian armed forces have a limited number of these missiles. It is also unclear whether Western allies will decide to transfer more of these types of missiles to Kyiv and in what quantity.
There is no certainty about the US President's steps on this matter. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Thursday, September 26, at 9 p.m. ET. Zelensky is lobbying for permission to use long-range missiles on Russian territory, which he believes could bring the conflict to its territory.
The "New York Times" notes that the Kremlin often uses threats to discourage the West from providing Ukraine with more advanced weaponry. Critics of Biden and his allies argue that they are too easily intimidated by Putin's rhetoric. On the other hand, supporters point out that this approach has helped avoid an aggressive Russian reaction.
High-impact weaponry
ATACMS ballistic missiles were delivered to Ukraine in two variants - the M39, with a range of about 100 miles, and the M39A1, which has a range of up to nearly 186 miles.
Launched from airplanes, Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles can theoretically hit targets up to nearly 311 miles away. They possess BROACH (Bomb Royal Ordnance Augmented Charge) warheads weighing about 992 pounds. Their advantage is their proven difficulty in detection, even by the best Russian anti-aircraft systems such as the Pantsir-S1 or S-400. They were built using stealth technology.
American intelligence suggests that Russia could respond to the permission to use such weapons by intensifying sabotage and arson activities in Europe and even attacks on American and European military bases.
American officials point out that most sabotage in Europe is carried out by the Russian military intelligence agency GRU. They assess that in response to the permission for Ukraine to use weapons on Russian territory, Vladimir Putin may decide to intensify the sabotage campaign instead of launching open attacks on American and European bases to minimize the risk of a larger conflict.
