AfD wins big in Thuringia, Scholz coalition suffers defeat

The far-right AfD emerged as the most potent force in the Thuringia parliamentary elections. Olaf Scholz's coalition parties suffered a defeat in this state.

The far-right AfD is the clear winner of the Thuringia parliamentary elections. For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, a party classified by German counterintelligence as decidedly right-wing extremist has won elections to a regional parliament.

According to exit poll forecasts from the Infratest dimap institute, the AfD, led in Thuringia by Björn Höcke, received nearly 33 percent of the vote. Five years ago, 23.4 percent of voters voted for this party in the regional elections.

In the election campaign, the AfD dominated immigration, crime, and the German government's policy toward Ukraine. The party used nationalist and radical slogans, presenting itself as a group representing East German interests. The leader of AfD in Thuringia is 52-year-old former teacher Björn Höcke, who was recently convicted of using an SA slogan.

“We are the number one people's party,” said Höcke on the election night of September 1 on ARD television. He spoke of a "historic result." As he pointed out, he wants to hold talks with other parties about participating in the government. “This is a good parliamentary tradition that the strongest party invites discussions after the elections,” said Höcke. “We are ready to take responsibility for the government.”

The conservative CDU ranks second in Thuringia, achieving about 24 percent of the vote, more than in 2019 (21.7 percent). The Christian Democrats, with the leading candidate Mario Voigt, presented themselves as a clear alternative to the minority coalition of the leftist Premier Bodo Ramelow. Still, the CDU was not able to win against the AfD. Voigt categorically excluded cooperation with the AfD, the Left, and the Greens.

The CDU returns as the "strongest force in the political centre," said Voigt after announcing the preliminary election results. “The CDU made it,” he said, adding that his party is mandated to govern. “We also see this as an opportunity for political change under CDU leadership,” he said in Erfurt.

After the historic success in 2019, Premier Bodo Ramelow's Left Party was defeated. Preliminary forecasts speak of about 12 percent. Five years ago, it was still 31 percent. Ramelow has been co-governing Thuringia since 2014, most recently with the SPD and the Greens in a minority government. Voters increasingly criticize the work of his government. And although the 68-year-old Ramelow is still by far the most popular politician in Thuringia, he could not prevent his party's decline in ratings. The fact that the party did not lose significance, as in Saxony, was probably solely due to Ramelow.

His central theme in the election campaign was the fight against the AfD and the fascist Höcke. “I fight against the normalization of fascism,” he said on the election night on ARD television. He said he did not fight against the CDU or the new leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). He believes CDU leader Voigt should form the government. Whoever from the democratic spectrum "has the most votes must start talks, must invite," said Ramelow. Regarding the probable loss of the Thuringian premiership, Ramelow stated: “I have no problem with the fact that a political office is awarded for a specific period.”

Besides the AfD, the biggest winner of these elections is the BSW alliance, which received over 15 percent at the start and will quickly enter the state parliament in Erfurt. The party criticizes arms deliveries to Ukraine and calls for negotiations with Russia. However, its stance against immigration and social security appealed to many voters. The driving force behind the election campaign was the BSW's creator, Sahra Wagenknecht, though she did not run in the elections herself.

Wagenknecht also set the direction for the future: “We have high hopes that together with the CDU, we will create a good government – probably also with the SPD,” she said. She explicitly rejected a coalition with the AfD in Thuringia, noting that the BSW cannot cooperate with regional AfD leader Björn Höcke.

Olaf Scholz's coalition parties lost in Thuringia. The Social Democratic SPD won about 6 percent of the vote. Its leader, Interior Minister Georg Maier, stated that the party could not even score in traditional SPD areas, such as social justice and geopolitical issues that dominated the election campaign. “Our competitors wanted us to talk about war and peace (...) and issues we cannot decide on,” he said. According to him, this strategy "unfortunately worked."

The Greens will be outside the state parliament in Erfurt, as they did not cross the five-percent electoral threshold. The liberal FDP also failed to do so (1.2 percent of the vote).

Thuringia now faces the difficult task of forming a government. The AfD is not strong enough and has no partners with which to govern. However, it will be a significant force in the new parliament.

As the second strongest party, the CDU could consider alliances with the BSW and SPD. However, the BSW has already set conditions for cooperation in advance. A CDU coalition with the Left Party would be mathematically possible but is considered politically impossible. The BSW may also consider options with the Left and SPD.

Almost 1.7 million residents were eligible to vote in Thuringia. Voter turnout is estimated at 73.5 percent.